Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
82 76 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
61 47 75 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
67 46 85
All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nate Silver's claims
“The peak will probably come sooner there than elsewhere.”
Nate Silver, on X 28 March 2020 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2020-03-28 (X)
The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge on the first US wave of COVID-19 in 2020, the wave under way when the claim was made. Use the date of the peak in the 7-day average of daily deaths, hospitalisations or confirmed cases, in that order of preference. True: the NYC metro area peaked earlier than nearly all other major US metro areas and states (at most one or two minor exceptions). Mostly true: it peaked earlier than most of them, but a few notable metros or states peaked at about the same time or slightly earlier. Mixed: its peak came at roughly the same time as many other areas, so 'sooner than elsewhere' holds for only about half of the comparisons. Mostly false: most major metros or states peaked before NYC or at the same time, with only a few peaking later. False: NYC peaked later than most other US areas.
Evidence
- Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis Journal of Medical Internet Research · 9 February 2021
“New York peaked the week of March 27 to April 2, Boston the week of April 10-16, and Chicago the week of April 17-24.”
- Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis Journal of Medical Internet Research · 9 February 2021
“In the Seattle metropolitan area, the first wave peaked the week of March 20-26, as it did in Detroit”
- Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis Journal of Medical Internet Research · 9 February 2021
“The first wave of the pandemic crested in southern cities about 3 months later, corresponding to a US-wide peak on July 16 with 77,352 new cases that day [19].”
- Modeling region based regimes for COVID‐19 mitigation: An inverse Gompertz approach to coronavirus infections in the USA, New York, and New Jersey Regional Science Policy & Practice (PubMed Central) · 29 April 2021
“The US and the state of New Jersey's first wave, both peaked around 25 April 2020, while the New York peak occurred around 15 April 2020.”
Reasoning
E1 puts New York's first-wave case peak in the week of March 27 to April 2, before Boston (April 10-16) and Chicago (April 17-24). E3 says the first wave crested in southern cities about three months later. E4 says New York's first wave peaked before New Jersey's and the national peak. However, E2 says Seattle and Detroit peaked a week earlier than New York. Under the criteria, NYC peaking before most areas while a few notable metros peaked slightly earlier makes the claim mostly true. The evidence does not show peaks in deaths or hospitalisations, and most items do not state which measure their peak dates use; only E3 refers to new cases.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US.” (said 28 March 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c22dc6cc1ea0, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c22dc6cc1ea0
Claims without a verdict
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