ClaimsNate Silver

“The peak will probably come sooner there than elsewhere.”

Nate Silver, on X 28 March 2020 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2020-03-28 (X)

Prediction Biosecurity

The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge on the first US wave of COVID-19 in 2020, the wave under way when the claim was made. Use the date of the peak in the 7-day average of daily deaths, hospitalisations or confirmed cases, in that order of preference. True: the NYC metro area peaked earlier than nearly all other major US metro areas and states (at most one or two minor exceptions). Mostly true: it peaked earlier than most of them, but a few notable metros or states peaked at about the same time or slightly earlier. Mixed: its peak came at roughly the same time as many other areas, so 'sooner than elsewhere' holds for only about half of the comparisons. Mostly false: most major metros or states peaked before NYC or at the same time, with only a few peaking later. False: NYC peaked later than most other US areas.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis Journal of Medical Internet Research · 9 February 2021

    “New York peaked the week of March 27 to April 2, Boston the week of April 10-16, and Chicago the week of April 17-24.”

  2. E2 Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis Journal of Medical Internet Research · 9 February 2021

    “In the Seattle metropolitan area, the first wave peaked the week of March 20-26, as it did in Detroit”

  3. E3 Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis Journal of Medical Internet Research · 9 February 2021

    “The first wave of the pandemic crested in southern cities about 3 months later, corresponding to a US-wide peak on July 16 with 77,352 new cases that day [19].”

  4. E4 Modeling region based regimes for COVID‐19 mitigation: An inverse Gompertz approach to coronavirus infections in the USA, New York, and New Jersey Regional Science Policy & Practice (PubMed Central) · 29 April 2021

    “The US and the state of New Jersey's first wave, both peaked around 25 April 2020, while the New York peak occurred around 15 April 2020.”

Reasoning

E1 puts New York's first-wave case peak in the week of March 27 to April 2, before Boston (April 10-16) and Chicago (April 17-24). E3 says the first wave crested in southern cities about three months later. E4 says New York's first wave peaked before New Jersey's and the national peak. However, E2 says Seattle and Detroit peaked a week earlier than New York. Under the criteria, NYC peaking before most areas while a few notable metros peaked slightly earlier makes the claim mostly true. The evidence does not show peaks in deaths or hospitalisations, and most items do not state which measure their peak dates use; only E3 refers to new cases.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US.” (said 28 March 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c22dc6cc1ea0, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c22dc6cc1ea0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly true Prediction 29 June 2021
    “It sure seems very likely that people who got one dose of J&J would benefit from getting a booster of Pfizer or Moderna.”

    It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 11 June 2021
    “we could obviously also see a rise in cases here too because of the Delta variant.”

    The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK.

  3. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

  5. Mixed Prediction 8 September 2023
    “Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”

    Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.