ClaimsNate Silver

“Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 September 2023 It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Use polls that track attention to the 2024 presidential election, such as Gallup's 'quite a lot of thought' question or Pew's 'following closely'. TRUE: such measures show fewer than half of voters paying attention in September 2023, and the majority threshold or clear surge in attention first came between about June and September 2024. MOSTLY TRUE: the surge came within a month or so of that window. MIXED: the indicators conflict, or attention rose gradually without a clear threshold. MOSTLY FALSE: a majority was already paying attention by early 2024, several months before the window. FALSE: a majority was already paying attention in September 2023, or soon after.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Thought Given to Election Portends High Turnout in U.S. Gallup · 13 May 2024

    “Seventy-one percent of Americans say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the upcoming presidential election, which is on par with election year readings at similar points in the 2008 and 2020 campaigns”

  2. E2 More than half of Americans are following election news closely, and many are already worn out Pew Research Center · 28 May 2024

    “More than half of Americans (58%) say they are following news about candidates for the 2024 presidential election very or fairly closely.”

  3. E3 Americans Aren’t Paying Close Attention to the 2024 Election The Liberal Patriot · 28 February 2024

    “As the chart below highlights, only 40 percent of American adults overall report that they have been paying a lot of attention to the 2024 election, with 31 percent paying some attention and 28 percent paying only a little or no attention at all.”

  4. E4 4. Interest in the 2024 election Pew Research Center · 11 July 2024

    “About a third of voters (33%) say they are following election news very closely. Another 41% are following election news fairly closely.”

Reasoning

A poll reported in February 2024 found only 40% of adults paying "a lot" of attention to the election, so on that measure most were not yet engaged in early 2024 (E3). By mid-to-late May 2024, though, 71% told Gallup they had given "quite a lot" of thought to the election, and 58% told Pew they were following candidate news very or fairly closely (E1, E2). That means a majority was paying attention at least shortly before the June–September 2024 window. The evidence has no September 2023 baseline and does not show when the majority threshold was first crossed, and the measures differ, so the indicators point in different directions rather than to a clear surge inside the window.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_ca47222e15f4, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ca47222e15f4

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 30 June 2022
    “Our forecast is out! Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House, but the Senate is a toss-up.”

    Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 9 June 2022
    “It's not that hard for Democrats to back into holding the Senate if there are subpar GOP candidates in a couple of key states or they just happen to win the races that are decided by a point or two.”

    Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 9 June 2022
    “House is much trickier and requires an unlikely change in the nat'l environment.”

    Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 25 September 2019
    “Everybody's guessing, but my guess is that the public is going to see what's in the transcript as being very inappropriate conduct”

    Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.