ClaimsNate Silver

“Everybody's guessing, but my guess is that the public is going to see what's in the transcript as being very inappropriate conduct”

Nate Silver, writing on X 25 September 2019 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2019-09-25 (X)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting Political

Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Use national polls taken after the call memo was released (2019-09-25) and up to the House impeachment vote (2019-12-18), asking whether Trump's conduct on the Ukraine call was inappropriate, wrong or improper. TRUE: a clear majority, in averages or most quality polls, judged the conduct inappropriate or wrong, and most respondents rejected the 'no quid pro quo' defence. MOSTLY TRUE: a majority judged it inappropriate, but the evidence on the quid pro quo defence is thin or mixed. MIXED: only a plurality judged it inappropriate, or polls split roughly evenly. MOSTLY FALSE: a minority judged it inappropriate, while many still called it wrong. FALSE: most polls show the public did not see the conduct as inappropriate.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Impeachment Support Up Slightly But Trump Job Rating Steady | Polling Institute Monmouth University Polling Institute · 1 October 2019

    “When asked about the nature of that exchange, 45% of the public say Trump made promises or put pressure on Zelenskiy to investigate Biden, while 20% believe he did not do this.”

  2. E2 Fox News Poll: Majority of Americans Want Trump Removed Courthouse News · 9 October 2019

    “Additionally, two out of three voters polled said it was inappropriate for President Trump to ask foreign leaders to investigate his political rivals.”

  3. E3 Americans say it's inappropriate for the president to ask a foreign leader to investigate his rival YouGov · 25 September 2019

    “Overall, the public finds it inappropriate for the President to threaten to withhold foreign aid if it doesn’t do what the President wants.”

  4. E4 70% of Americans say Trump’s actions tied to Ukraine were wrong: POLL ABC News · 18 November 2019

    “An overwhelming 70% of Americans think President Donald Trump’s request to a foreign leader to investigate his political rival, which sits at the heart of the House of Representatives' impeachment inquiry, was wrong, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds.”

Reasoning

An ABC News/Ipsos poll from November 2019 found that 70% of Americans thought Trump's request to a foreign leader to investigate his political rival was wrong (E4). A Fox News poll found that about two in three voters thought it inappropriate for Trump to ask foreign leaders to investigate rivals (E2). YouGov found the public saw threatening to withhold aid as inappropriate (E3). Together these show a clear majority judging the conduct wrong. The evidence on the 'no quid pro quo' defence is thinner: Monmouth found 45% said Trump pressured Zelenskiy or made promises, against 20% who said he did not (E1). That is a plurality rather than a clear majority rejecting the defence, which fits MOSTLY TRUE under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns.” (said 25 September 2019). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_1229b8e368ff, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1229b8e368ff

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  2. Mixed Prediction 8 September 2023
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  3. Resolved true Prediction 30 June 2022
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  4. Resolved true Prediction 9 June 2022
    “It's not that hard for Democrats to back into holding the Senate if there are subpar GOP candidates in a couple of key states or they just happen to win the races that are decided by a point or two.”

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  5. Resolved true Prediction 9 June 2022
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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.