ClaimsNate Silver

“we could obviously also see a rise in cases here too because of the Delta variant.”

Nate Silver, writing on X 11 June 2021 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2021-06-11 (X)

Prediction Biosecurity

The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is a hedged prediction of a possible rise. Judge it on US cases from June to the end of September 2021. True: the national 7-day average of new cases rose clearly (at least doubling from the June 2021 low), and Delta is identified as the main driver. Mostly true: cases rose clearly, but Delta was only one of several main drivers, or the rise was smaller than a doubling but still sustained. Mixed: cases rose only modestly, or in limited regions. Mostly false: cases were broadly flat, with only small local upticks. False: cases kept falling over the period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review CDC · 3 September 2021

    “The current 7-day moving average is 39.7% lower than the peak observed on January 10, 2021 (253,948) and is 1,217.0% higher than the lowest value observed on June 18, 2021 (11,636).”

  2. E2 COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review CDC · 3 September 2021

    “Nationally, the combined proportion of cases attributed to Delta is estimated to be greater than 99%.”

  3. E3 COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review CDC · 23 July 2021

    “The current 7-day moving average is 84.2% lower than the peak observed on January 10, 2021 (254,052), and is 250.6% higher than the lowest value observed on June 19, 2021 (11,480).”

  4. E4 Delta Wave Subsides: U.S. Infections And Hospitalizations Down At Least 50% From September Peak Forbes · 26 October 2021

    “There are now an average of 70,291 new cases each day in the U.S., a 60% decrease from the peak 7-day average of 175,822 reached September 13,”

Reasoning

The CDC's 3 September 2021 review reports that the national 7-day moving average of new cases was 1,217% higher than its low on 18 June 2021 (E1). That is a rise of more than ten times, well past the doubling the criteria require, and the 23 July review already showed a 250.6% rise (E3). The same CDC review says Delta made up more than 99% of US cases nationally (E2), and Forbes describes the wave that peaked on 13 September as the Delta wave (E4). This meets the criteria for true: a clear rise driven mainly by Delta.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK.” (said 11 June 2021). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_28388f561428, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_28388f561428

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly true Prediction 29 June 2021
    “It sure seems very likely that people who got one dose of J&J would benefit from getting a booster of Pfizer or Moderna.”

    It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 28 March 2020
    “The peak will probably come sooner there than elsewhere.”

    The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US.

  3. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

  5. Mixed Prediction 8 September 2023
    “Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”

    Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.