ClaimsPeople

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.

617 claims collected, 163 researched, 84 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    82 76 88

    High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    61 47 75

    Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    67 46 85

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

16 claims

16 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mixed Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam. Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 13 Aug 2024 Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were. Prediction · 13 Aug 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mixed Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Prediction 8 Sep 2023 If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Resolved true Prediction 30 Jun 2022 Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Prediction 30 Jun 2022 If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Prediction 29 Jun 2021 It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster. Prediction · 29 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Prediction 11 Jun 2021 The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK. Prediction · 11 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Mostly true Prediction 28 Mar 2020 The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Prediction · 28 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Mostly true Prediction 25 Sep 2019 Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Prediction 23 Sep 2019 Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know. Prediction · 23 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Prediction · 2015 Other
Resolved false Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Prediction · 2015 Other
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Nate Silver

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Prediction Other Political

“Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”

Nate Silver, editor in chief, writing for FiveThirtyEight 2015 Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination (FiveThirtyEight)

Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judged at the 2016 Republican National Convention (July 2016). True: Donald Trump was not the 2016 Republican presidential nominee. False: Trump formally won the 2016 Republican nomination. Because the claim states one outcome, no intermediate verdict applies unless the nomination was left unresolved, which would be unusual.

Evidence

  1. Trump Crowned GOP Nominee, Vows to 'Win in November' - Roll Call Roll Call · 19 July 2016
    “Donald Trump officially clinched the Republican nomination for president on Tuesday, culminating an unexpected and tumultuous political ascent that energized dissatisfied Americans and alarmed the establishment.”
  2. The Green Papers: Commentary The Green Papers · 19 July 2016
    “Convention Chair Paul Ryan takes the dais to formally declare Trump and Pence nominated President and Vice-President, respectively”
  3. The Green Papers: Commentary The Green Papers · 19 July 2016
    “Totals announced by Ryan: Trump 1725; Cruz 475; Kasich 120; Rubio 114; Carson 7; Bush 3; Paul 2”
  4. FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist Jim Rutenberg wrote that”

Reasoning

Roll Call reported on 2016-07-19 that Donald Trump officially clinched the Republican presidential nomination (E1), and The Green Papers records the convention chair formally declaring Trump nominated (E2). The Green Papers records that Convention Chair Paul Ryan formally declared Trump the nominee, with an announced delegate total of 1,725 for Trump against 475 for Cruz (E2, E3). Wikipedia also notes that Trump had become the presumptive nominee in May 2016 (E4). The prediction that Trump would not win the nomination therefore resolved false.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.” (said 2015). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_9451faeaefea, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9451faeaefea

Claims without a verdict

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