Nate Silver

Factual · Science and research methods

“The Democratic side of the collab, GBAO, has likewise done millions of dollars worth of polling for Democratic clients.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin · 8 September 2023 · It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin)

The polling firm GBAO has done millions of dollars' worth of polling for Democratic clients.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True: FEC disbursement records, campaign finance databases (OpenSecrets) or GBAO's documented client work show cumulative payments to GBAO (GBA Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner successor) from Democratic campaigns, party committees or allied groups totaling at least $1–2 million by 2023-09-08. Mostly true: clearly substantial Democratic polling work is documented, and totals approach but are not clearly shown to exceed a few million dollars, or the firm's identity or lineage is slightly misstated. Mixed: GBAO does Democratic polling, but the documented totals are well under $1 million. Mostly false: GBAO's clients are mainly non-partisan or non-Democratic, with only minor Democratic work. False: GBAO has not done polling for Democratic clients.

Evidence

1. DCCC Vendors Work for Corporations Lobbying Against Democratic Policies Sludge · 21 May 2019

   “Polling firm GBA Strategies, which has received $62,500 from the DCCC in the current election cycle and received $1.7 million from the DCCC in 2017-18, works with Charter Communications”

2. DCCC Vendors Work for Corporations Lobbying Against Democratic Policies - The American Prospect The American Prospect · 23 May 2019

   “Polling firm GBA Strategies, which has received $62,500 from the DCCC in the current election cycle and received $1.7 million from the DCCC in 2017-18, works with Charter Communications”

3. Transcript of Board of Elections Special Meeting Released - Finney Law Firm Finney Law Firm · 19 September 2018

   “the unredacted checks showing that the $16,500 payment to GBA Strategies – a DC polling firm – was indeed for polling, not “consulting.””

Reasoning

E1 (Sludge) and E2 (The American Prospect) report that the polling firm GBA Strategies received $1.7 million from the DCCC in the 2017-18 cycle and another $62,500 in the following cycle. The resolution criteria treat GBA Strategies as part of GBAO's lineage. E3 records a further $16,500 payment to GBA Strategies that was for polling; the quoted text does not name the payer. Cumulative payments from a Democratic party committee alone reach the criteria's threshold of at least $1–2 million before 2023-09-08.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “The polling firm GBAO has done millions of dollars' worth of polling for Democratic clients.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_762f32b9fc8c, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_762f32b9fc8c