ClaimsPeople

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.

617 claims collected, 163 researched, 84 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    82 76 88

    High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    61 47 75

    Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    67 46 85

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

10 claims

10 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 28 Oct 2026 Silver said that, "with AI looming too," "it could be the biggest issue of 2028," and argued that AI could become one of the defining issues of the next US presidential election. Prediction · 28 Oct 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 23 Oct 2026 The 2026 elections will almost certainly include states with Senate and gubernatorial results splitting by party, similar to Vermont and Kansas in 2022. Prediction · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 23 Oct 2026 FLIPR projects the median margin gap between statewide contests in 2026 will be about six points. Prediction · 23 Oct 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 12 May 2025 Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook. Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Not yet due Prediction 12 May 2025 If Democrats win three of the four named Senate races plus the presidency, they would probably have a trifecta in 2028. Prediction · 12 May 2025 Other
Not yet due Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Congress would ultimately need two-thirds majorities to stop the tariffs because Trump has threatened a veto, and Silver said he believed Trump would follow through on those threats. Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Silver said he did not think getting 60 votes in the Senate on measures against Trump's tariffs, enough to overcome a filibuster, would be so hard. Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 8 Apr 2025 In April 2025, Silver said that at that point he would consider Democrats a little over 50% likely to retake the White House in 2028. Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Trump's tariffs could be rescinded at any time, if not now then after the 2026 midterms or after the 2028 election. Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 7 Nov 2024 Utah could become a swing state by 2040. Prediction · 7 Nov 2024 Other
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Nate Silver

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Prediction Other Political

“And while I have no idea what it will say,5 I suspect that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark than Yglesias and Cook.”

Nate Silver, author 12 May 2025 Can Democrats really win the Senate in 2026? (Silver Bulletin)

Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

deadline 2026 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook.” (said 12 May 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_35d80f2041da, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_35d80f2041da

Claims without a verdict

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