ClaimsNate Silver

“And while I have no idea what it will say,5 I suspect that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark than Yglesias and Cook.”

Nate Silver, author 12 May 2025 Can Democrats really win the Senate in 2026? (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Prediction Other Political

Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

deadline 2026 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Nate Silver suspects that the prediction markets are more in the right ballpark on the 2026 midterms than Yglesias and Cook.” (said 12 May 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_35d80f2041da, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_35d80f2041da

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

    Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

    If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”

    Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Nor, in all likelihood, could Trump win with a plurality of votes or delegates because the Republican Party, which controls the nomination process, would unite against him.”

    In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him.

  5. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

All of them

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