Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
82 76 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
61 47 75 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
67 46 85
All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nate Silver's claims
37 claims
“Occasional2 paywalled posts on other topics that attract nerdy but enthusiastic audiences.”
Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 11 September 2023 Soft launch of paid subscriptions (Silver Bulletin)
Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
The test is the year after the pledge (11 September 2023 to 11 September 2024). It asks whether Silver Bulletin published occasional posts that were fully or partly paywalled for paid subscribers, on topics outside its core election and politics coverage (for example sports, poker, gambling, AI or culture). True: several such paywalled posts (at least three) appeared in that period. Mostly true: one or two such posts appeared. Mostly false: posts on other topics appeared, but none was paywalled. False: the archive for the period shows no posts on other topics at all.
Evidence
- Our best and worst takes of 2024 Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 31 December 2024 Own record
“Steph Curry is Magic (Aug. 11). A celebration of an all-time great player that was too much fun not to write up even in the midst of election season.”
- Our best and worst takes of 2024 Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 31 December 2024 Own record
“Google abandoned "don't be evil" — and Gemini is the result (Feb. 28).”
- March Madness: Saturday night live update Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 24 March 2024 Own record
“So here are updated NCAA tournament projections after Saturday’s games. This email blast is going out to paid subscribers only.”
- Steph Curry is Magic Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 11 August 2024 Own record
“Steph Curry belongs in the same vicinity as Magic in the conversation about the greatest basketball players of all time.”
- SBSQ #11b: On the future of the newsletter — and the sports models Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 18 August 2024 Own record
“This edition of SBSQ will run free, however. We’ll take a quick question about the book and then a longer one about the future of the newsletter and the sports models.”
Reasoning
E3 is a March Madness projections post from 24 March 2024. It says it was "going out to paid subscribers only", which makes it one paywalled sports post inside the test window. E2 and E4 show other non-politics posts in the window: one on Google's Gemini in February 2024 and one on Steph Curry in August 2024. Their quotes do not show whether they were paywalled. With only one post confirmed as paywalled, the claim meets the "one or two" bar for mostly true but not the "at least three" bar for true.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.” (said 11 September 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_25dfd72793a4, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_25dfd72793a4
Claims without a verdict
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