Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
The test is the year after the pledge (11 September 2023 to 11 September 2024). It asks whether Silver Bulletin published occasional posts that were fully or partly paywalled for paid subscribers, on topics outside its core election and politics coverage (for example sports, poker, gambling, AI or culture). True: several such paywalled posts (at least three) appeared in that period. Mostly true: one or two such posts appeared. Mostly false: posts on other topics appeared, but none was paywalled. False: the archive for the period shows no posts on other topics at all.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (5)
-
E1 Our best and worst takes of 2024 Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 31 December 2024 Own record
“Steph Curry is Magic (Aug. 11). A celebration of an all-time great player that was too much fun not to write up even in the midst of election season.”
-
E2 Our best and worst takes of 2024 Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 31 December 2024 Own record
“Google abandoned "don't be evil" — and Gemini is the result (Feb. 28).”
-
E3 March Madness: Saturday night live update Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 24 March 2024 Own record
“So here are updated NCAA tournament projections after Saturday’s games. This email blast is going out to paid subscribers only.”
-
E4 Steph Curry is Magic Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 11 August 2024 Own record
“Steph Curry belongs in the same vicinity as Magic in the conversation about the greatest basketball players of all time.”
-
E5 SBSQ #11b: On the future of the newsletter — and the sports models Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 18 August 2024 Own record
“This edition of SBSQ will run free, however. We’ll take a quick question about the book and then a longer one about the future of the newsletter and the sports models.”
Reasoning
E3 is a March Madness projections post from 24 March 2024. It says it was "going out to paid subscribers only", which makes it one paywalled sports post inside the test window. E2 and E4 show other non-politics posts in the window: one on Google's Gemini in February 2024 and one on Steph Curry in August 2024. Their quotes do not show whether they were paywalled. With only one post confirmed as paywalled, the claim meets the "one or two" bar for mostly true but not the "at least three" bar for true.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.” (said 11 September 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_25dfd72793a4, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_25dfd72793a4
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by Nate Silver
-
Delivered on time
“It will be at least a year before we have the official Silver Bulletin midterms forecast up.”
-
Mostly false
“I’ll probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings just because those are pretty straightforward, with a goal of launching by the end of the year, if not sooner.”
-
Resolved true
“Periodic1 paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads, where I’ll answer reader questions from paid subscribers.”
-
Delivered on time
“Midterms model coming soon; think one of the topline numbers might surprise people a bit.”
Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.