Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.
Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that Silver's 2022 midterms forecast model would be published 'soon' after 29 June 2022. For this test, 'soon' means within about four weeks (by 31 July 2022). The model must be a public forecast of the 2022 US midterm elections (House and/or Senate) that Silver built or led, whether at FiveThirtyEight or elsewhere. True: it went public on or before 31 July 2022. Mostly true: it went public in early August 2022 (by about 15 August), or by 31 July but covering only one chamber when both were implied. Mostly false: it went public later than that but before the 8 November 2022 election. False: no Silver midterms model was published before the election, or a dated report shows the model was cancelled. Whether any topline number 'surprised people' is not tested.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
-
E1 Interactive Maps for FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast - 270toWin 270toWin · 5 July 2022
“FiveThirtyEight has recently published its 2022 election forecasts for Senate, House, and governor. We've created interactive maps for each.”
-
E2 The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns! : FiveThirtyEight : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive Internet Archive (hosting a FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode) · 30 June 2022 Own record
“The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/) is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties.”
-
E3 Nate Silver's Blog, page 14 Goodreads (republishing Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight articles) · 29 July 2022 Own record
“That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30.”
Reasoning
E1 is an independent 270toWin article dated 5 July 2022. It reports that FiveThirtyEight had "recently published its 2022 election forecasts for Senate, House, and governor." E2, a FiveThirtyEight podcast listing dated 30 June 2022, says the midterms forecast was live. E3 refers to the forecast's launch on June 30. Together they show the House and Senate model went public well before the 31 July 2022 cutoff.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.” (said 29 June 2022). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_104636c5e02f, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_104636c5e02f
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by Nate Silver
-
Delivered on time
“It will be at least a year before we have the official Silver Bulletin midterms forecast up.”
-
Mostly false
“I’ll probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings just because those are pretty straightforward, with a goal of launching by the end of the year, if not sooner.”
-
Mostly true
“Occasional2 paywalled posts on other topics that attract nerdy but enthusiastic audiences.”
Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.
-
Resolved true
“Periodic1 paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads, where I’ll answer reader questions from paid subscribers.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.