Nate Silver will hold periodic paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin, answering questions from paid subscribers.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
The test is the year after 11 September 2023. True: Silver held recurring Q&A threads or posts in which he answered questions from paid subscribers, with question submission limited to paid subscribers or the thread paywalled. 'Periodic' means at least four such threads, roughly evenly spaced, in that year. Mostly true: there were two or three such threads, or the cadence was irregular. Mostly false: there was only one, or the Q&As were open to all readers rather than limited to paid subscribers. False: the archive for the period shows no Q&A threads answering reader questions.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 SBSQ #1: Is Dallas on the Atlantic Coast? Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 23 September 2023 Own record
“Here’s what we’re going to try. In each question thread, I’ll answer questions from the previous thread and solicit new questions for the next thread. Q&A threads will be posted somewhere between three weeks and a month apart from one another.”
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E2 SBSQ #1: Is Dallas on the Atlantic Coast? Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 23 September 2023 Own record
“I’ll aim to answer on the order of five questions per thread. The first question or two will be in front of the paywall and the rest will be behind the paywall.”
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E3 SBSQ #5: The 5 types of people who argue on the Internet Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 31 January 2024 Own record
“So you should submit your questions for February below – but you’re also more than welcome to comment on this month’s questions.”
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E4 SBSQ #9: ⚡ Lightning Round edition ⚡ Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 31 May 2024 Own record
“It’s the end of the month — which means it’s time for the May edition of Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions, the place for paid subscribers to ask me questions about pretty much anything.”
Reasoning
The published Silver Bulletin threads show recurring Q&As within the test year. SBSQ #1 appeared on 2023-09-23 and planned threads every three weeks to a month (E1). SBSQ #5 appeared on 2024-01-31 and SBSQ #9 on 2024-05-31 (E3, E4). The numbering implies at least nine threads by May 2024, at a roughly monthly cadence. E4 describes the series as the place for paid subscribers to ask questions, and E2 says most answers sit behind the paywall, which meets the paid-subscriber limit in the criteria.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Nate Silver will hold periodic paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin, answering questions from paid subscribers.” (said 11 September 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_81d3a1168778, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_81d3a1168778
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by Nate Silver
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Delivered on time
“It will be at least a year before we have the official Silver Bulletin midterms forecast up.”
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Mostly false
“I’ll probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings just because those are pretty straightforward, with a goal of launching by the end of the year, if not sooner.”
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Mostly true
“Occasional2 paywalled posts on other topics that attract nerdy but enthusiastic audiences.”
Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.
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Delivered on time
“Midterms model coming soon; think one of the topline numbers might surprise people a bit.”
Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.