ClaimsPeople

Nassim Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an author and risk researcher, known for the five-volume Incerto series, which includes Fooled by Randomness.

783 claims collected, 182 researched, 94 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    73 67 79

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2008 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 65 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 11 unresolvable. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 67 to 79, high confidence), from 94 claims: 94 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nassim Taleb's claims

2 claims

2 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 29 Dec 2019 The probability that any of the books shown in the linked post, except perhaps Dalrymple's and Murakami's, will survive a decade is very small. Prediction · 29 Dec 2019 Other
Not yet due Prediction 10 Jul 2017 A book that is interesting today and would have been interesting 20 years ago will probably still be interesting 20 years from now. Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
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Nassim Taleb

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Prediction Other

“The probability of any of these books surviving a decade (except perhaps Darlymple & Murakami) so tiny.”

Nassim Taleb, posting on X 29 December 2019 Post by @nntaleb on X, 2019-12-29 (X)

The probability that any of the books shown in the linked post, except perhaps Dalrymple's and Murakami's, will survive a decade is very small.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2029 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “The probability that any of the books shown in the linked post, except perhaps Dalrymple's and Murakami's, will survive a decade is very small.” (said 29 December 2019). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_4e980f4c3067, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4e980f4c3067

Claims without a verdict

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