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30 Sep 2025 |
If you hear someone saying something once, he is trying to convince you; twice, he is trying to convince himself.
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29 Sep 2025 |
his looks are unmistakenly Indian, but his name & religion are Portuguese.
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29 Sep 2025 |
Alas, coming to the conclusion that Dinesh D'Souza @DineshDSouza is a total fraud.
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28 Sep 2025 |
Assuming that "ancestry" (both Podhoretz & Mileikowsky) is true (it's not)
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28 Sep 2025 |
All rumors are false until officially denied.
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28 Sep 2025 |
Predictably: this is a reminder that immigration works only in small quantities; even when the people look superficially the same.
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27 Sep 2025 |
This is the new Hasbara 2025: spread posts on social media by retards portraying Israel as the Western defense against Islam.
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27 Sep 2025 |
Censorship & propaganda work only when invisible, as we learned from the Soviet Union.
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26 Sep 2025 |
Those who know he is bullshitting but have left the room.
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25 Sep 2025 |
Going to Café de Flore for food (let alone onion soup) is the equivalent of going to Mar-a-Lago to discuss Kant, Algazel, & other topics of…
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25 Sep 2025 |
Palestinian Christians have been their biggest victims.
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25 Sep 2025 |
He will also take Tylenol next accident.
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24 Sep 2025 |
So the poor must be imported — reluctantly.
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24 Sep 2025 |
For the past 9m every time I've seen Trump or any of his myrmidons making an economics statement has prompted me to buy gold-- irresistibly.
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24 Sep 2025 |
Unreliable & unwise.
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24 Sep 2025 |
is harder at the top of the S-curve.
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24 Sep 2025 |
We end up in the strange situation of xenophobic people importing labor for their own purposes while voting against immigration — a sort of…
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24 Sep 2025 |
Some of us who do science can help interpreting it.
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24 Sep 2025 |
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
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24 Sep 2025 |
Many are discovering,” he said, “that lifestyle improvements, such as bicycling paths and pedestrian- and cyclist-friendly cities, may not…
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23 Sep 2025 |
Lifetime observation: the fancier the restaurant, the fewer the smiles—and even fewer the laughs.
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23 Sep 2025 |
Nuances are too difficult for electronic tulip peddlers.
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22 Sep 2025 |
Over a lifespan I’ve observed that people who are petty, argumentative, competitive, envious, & grudging tend to—actually, always—fail…
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22 Sep 2025 |
Term shd be Judeophobe, just like Islamophobe & Christophobe.
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22 Sep 2025 |
Markets are perverse; they trap people.
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22 Sep 2025 |
The car may degrade with time, but the driver gets better.
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22 Sep 2025 |
Focusing on aging & the physical brain (particularly age-related shrinkage) is misleading.
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21 Sep 2025 |
Life is dynamic, not static.
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19 Sep 2025 |
When you use nonlinear curves, the R^2 has no more meaning (multiple testing) & no longer unique least square.
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19 Sep 2025 |
It is like flaneuring but not necessarily outside your office.
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19 Sep 2025 |
Psych Journals are not rigorous (e.g. IQ)
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18 Sep 2025 |
I am monstrously impressed! Unlike your finance idiot, Grok gets the nuances!
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31 Mar 2024 |
One would think the conflict is between nationalism and universalism; but in reality the conflict is between nationalism and another…
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31 Mar 2024 |
An observation: once Westerners start becoming neutral or slightly pro-Palestinian, they tend to become progressively more and more…
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31 Mar 2024 |
Antifragility = local convexity/asymmetry, which explains hormesis.
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31 Mar 2024 |
That's the correct way to think about it.
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30 Mar 2024 |
Others pushed it under the rug.
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30 Mar 2024 |
(The common academic belief that tail probabilities are "overpriced" makes no sense under F Tails, and he knew it.)
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29 Mar 2024 |
For an essay, read the text and skip the footnotes.
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28 Mar 2024 |
It's all about him. It's not about the victims.
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28 Mar 2024 |
Most people knew him as a thinker. I knew him as a person.
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27 Mar 2024 |
Converging over time is healthy, diverging is not.
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26 Mar 2024 |
Golfers are only 18%.
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25 Mar 2024 |
If all Bedouins have 2 eyes, not all those who have 2 eyes are Bedouin.
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25 Mar 2024 |
Trump is playing it in a clever way, avoiding to allienate both Muslim and Jewish voters upset with Genocied Joe.
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24 Mar 2024 |
If all Frenchmen have 2 eyes, having 2 eyes does not imply being French.
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24 Mar 2024 |
Classical generator behind Fooled by Randomness: affirming the consequent.
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24 Mar 2024 |
Noticed a certain number of propaganda accounts that don't follow you but jump on your thread when you mention "Palestinian"; the hasbara…
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23 Mar 2024 |
Why AI bothers some people: most humans love the soothing rythms of the routine, prefer to expend physical rather than intellectual energy.
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23 Mar 2024 |
Figured out chatting with Syrian workers why some Bedouins can cooperate with the Israelis.
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23 Mar 2024 |
By definition, being nomads, they have no attachment to land; their allegiance is to the tribe, unlike the dispossessed Palestinians who…
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22 Mar 2024 |
Predictably, virtue positioning is steadily shifting from pro-Israel to pro-Palestinian.
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22 Mar 2024 |
Just reduce the number of things you read that you wouldn't reread a decade (or more) from now.
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22 Mar 2024 |
Not by actively studying boring or nonboring material.
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22 Mar 2024 |
Ten years later, still on it.
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21 Mar 2024 |
If this chart does not jolt you you don't understand dynamics.
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20 Mar 2024 |
Tail probabilities require >> samples.
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20 Mar 2024 |
I guess a cigarette for breakfast may not help.
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19 Mar 2024 |
Bye-bye glyphosate => Bye-bye GMOs
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19 Mar 2024 |
Yes, I heard about this. Trying to figure out the puzzle.
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18 Mar 2024 |
A similar problem to the one that fooled psycholobullshitters (including @r_thaler) into the bogus "hot hand fallacy".
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18 Mar 2024 |
Alice has a higher expected average, but is expected to lose.
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18 Mar 2024 |
They just packaged it as a "burger" but it is legit, unlike the fake meat w/additives.
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18 Mar 2024 |
Probability is hard.
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17 Mar 2024 |
I also like to surprise myself.
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17 Mar 2024 |
I actually enjoy the act of writing provided it is done on my own terms, of course, not following some editor's directive.
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2023 |
For, as it stands, we see neither theoretical nor
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2023 |
Just as warning is not predicting, understanding distribution
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2023 |
So the burden is on forecasters to forecast.
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2023 |
comes to conflicts, forecasts for tail events are not compatible
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2023 |
Alas "probability" is a mathematical concept that
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2023 |
We apologize for not answering most of their points as these
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2023 |
about search for knowledge and understanding the world,
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2023 |
And we
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2023 |
general claim – this bizarre demand on the part of professional
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2023 |
–and in event risk in general.
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about precise measurements of exceedance probability, but
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2023 |
Events are not defined
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2023 |
The error comes from conflating the properties of GK which
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2023 |
one does not handle pandemics via forecasting tournaments
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2023 |
language of "false positive", while useful in medicine and
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2023 |
we find it highly unscientific to use a single track record to make any
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2023 |
We believe that academia is
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2023 |
we communicate a new result showing a
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2023 |
we completely fail to see the link in insurance
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2023 |
and reliance on champions for single point forecasts, but by
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2023 |
Furthermore, the
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2023 |
Furthermore, science is not
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2023 |
In general, risk management concerns extrema, another point of
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25 Feb 2022 |
Virtue should be unconditional. It should not be conditional.
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25 Feb 2022 |
The reason we have corporations is to avoid having legal contracts.
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25 Feb 2022 |
That's not how it works.
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25 Feb 2022 |
And I am often wrong.
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25 Feb 2022 |
So, there would be some competition there.
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25 Feb 2022 |
a club has its rules, letting goods in, letting people in; and usually these--there is very good governance at that level.
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25 Feb 2022 |
And now I think he is a BS vendor.
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25 Feb 2022 |
all the great scientific arguments can be written on a napkin.
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25 Feb 2022 |
So, my point is that I am in favor of globalization.
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25 Feb 2022 |
I don't think that we should decide on compensation. I think the market system should decide on compensation.
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25 Feb 2022 |
Actually, a lot of doctors like that point.
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