ClaimsPeople

Nassim Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an author and risk researcher, known for the five-volume Incerto series, which includes Fooled by Randomness.

783 claims collected, 182 researched, 94 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    73 67 79

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2008 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 65 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 11 unresolvable. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 67 to 79, high confidence), from 94 claims: 94 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nassim Taleb's claims

10 claims

10 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Factual 27 Dec 2020 Taleb has finished the technical content of the Lindy chapter of his book. Factual · 27 Dec 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Promise 31 Dec 2019 Taleb is running Twitter symposia on topics in Principia Politica and will integrate the comments into the text. Promise · 31 Dec 2019 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 10 Jul 2017 Traders were allowed to conceal their inventory from outsiders they called 'the Swiss'. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb does not employ a full-time assistant and instead employs people for specific tasks. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 10 Jul 2017 When Taleb was a trader he followed very complicated and strict ethical rules, such as never overcharging another trader. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb said he had posted a lot of things online and organized the book based on the excitement the chapters brought, adding "Of course, not 100%." Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 10 Jul 2017 The first 40 pages of the Skin in the Game manuscript explain skin in the game. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 11 Apr 2017 A few months later, Taleb met the man again and, while trying to shake hands with him, noticed a scar where the icepick had come out of his hand. Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Other
Own records only Factual 11 Apr 2017 At the end of a party, a man named David stood by the coat check using a handkerchief to sop up drops of blood from his hand. Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Other
Own records only Factual 11 Apr 2017 On seeing Donald Trump standing next to other Republican primary candidates, Taleb became certain Trump would win the primary stage regardless of what he said or did. Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
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Nassim Taleb

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“The Lindy Chapter is done (for technical stuff).”

Nassim Taleb, author, on X 27 December 2020 Post by @nntaleb on X, 2020-12-27 (X)

Taleb has finished the technical content of the Lindy chapter of his book.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Reasoning

Author's internal progress on a book chapter.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Taleb has finished the technical content of the Lindy chapter of his book.” (said 27 December 2020). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_0b47c749924f, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0b47c749924f

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Nassim Taleb? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.