ClaimsPeople

Nassim Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an author and risk researcher, known for the five-volume Incerto series, which includes Fooled by Randomness.

783 claims collected, 182 researched, 94 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    73 67 79

    High confidence, 94 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2008 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 65 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 0 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 11 unresolvable. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 checkable only against their own records.

All types combined: 73 (likely 67 to 79, high confidence), from 94 claims: 94 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nassim Taleb's claims

94 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Factual 28 Sep 2025 The Levant was the most stable area in the world between the early 1800s and 1948, with only skirmishes in 1860. Factual · 28 Sep 2025 Other
Mixed Factual 25 Sep 2025 Taleb's point was that bike lanes improve well-being and happiness without generating economic growth. Factual · 25 Sep 2025 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 24 Sep 2025 Entities in biology and economics grow convexly then slow as they saturate; growth may be unbounded but remains sub-logarithmic. Factual · 24 Sep 2025 Science and research methods
Mixed Factual 24 Sep 2025 If ancient populations such as hunter-gatherers and Inuit had a high incidence of cardiovascular disease, the unavoidable conclusion is that cardiovascular problems are at least half genetic. Factual · 24 Sep 2025 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 22 Sep 2025 Spitz has been bullish on markets for the past 3 years. Factual · 22 Sep 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 21 Sep 2025 The 3rd edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is available and adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions including Tsallis Entropy. Factual · 21 Sep 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 19 Sep 2025 Scientists who come up with new ideas and frameworks are more often experienced researchers than young ones. Factual · 19 Sep 2025 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 30 Mar 2024 The city of Jerusalem is not mentioned even once in the Pentateuch. Factual · 30 Mar 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 18 Mar 2024 Chef Alain Ducasse in France has recently offered a bulgur or quinoa and vegetable dish resembling the "Lent Kibbeh", packaged as a "burger". Factual · 18 Mar 2024 Other
Resolved true Factual 18 Mar 2024 Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org". Factual · 18 Mar 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2023 The exceedance probability PK corresponds to the zeroeth moment and is always thin-tailed. Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 2023 The exceedance probability PK, as a random variable bounded between 0 and 1, necessarily has thin tails with finite mean, variance and all moments. Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2023 If tail probability PK does not hedge tail expectation GK, then skill at predicting PK provides no information on GK. Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Mixed Factual 2023 Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union. Factual · 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2023 The paper responds to Tetlock et al. (2022). (2022). Factual · 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2023 Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices. Factual · 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2023 A sum of such bets, whose probabilities are modelled with a Uniform or Beta distribution, becomes Gaussian rapidly. Factual · 2023 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual Nov 2021 The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology. Factual · Nov 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Nov 2021 Shiite Islam shares many features with Christianity, such as a twelve-based structure, the last of whom is associated with Jesus, and self-flagellation rituals commemorating martyrdom. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Nov 2021 Orthodox Christianity has stiffer dietary laws than Western Christianity, with veganism more than 200 days per year. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Factual Nov 2021 Economic forecasts work no better than astrology. Factual · Nov 2021 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Nov 2021 It took about seventeen centuries from the 'eye of the needle' passage in Matthew 19:24 to the conception of organized communism and theories of social equality. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Nov 2021 Darwinian ideas of evolutionary differences within species naturally lead to notions of eugenics, that humans can improve the race by speeding evolution. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Factual Nov 2021 During Covid, some people openly called for geronticide and for letting 'fat people' die. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Nov 2021 The Enlightenment, with the growth of 'science', started finding statistical differences in abilities between people of different races. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Factual Nov 2021 Christianity was the vehicle by which separation of church and state was accomplished. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual Nov 2021 Emperor Julian did not realize that paganism was a decentralized, overlapping set of club-like affiliations to gods, and tried to organize it like the Church. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Factual Nov 2021 Europe is neither a continent, a language group nor a race, since over 100 million EU citizens are olive-skinned and hardly distinguishable from other Mediterraneans. Factual · Nov 2021 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 29 Dec 2020 A part of Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of Lebanese depositors who enjoyed steady and high returns. Factual · 29 Dec 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 29 Dec 2020 The new US Dietary Guidelines were negotiated with lobbyists from the food industry, with sugar vendors treated as stakeholders. Factual · 29 Dec 2020 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 21 Dec 2020 Erdogan threatened legal action against someone who called him a dictator. Factual · 21 Dec 2020 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 17 Dec 2020 It is a common mistake to think a Lognormal(mu, sigma) distribution has mean mu and standard deviation sigma. Factual · 17 Dec 2020 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual Jul 2020 For COVID-19 survivors, the illness is a large economic drain, from lost working hours alone, not counting hospitalization costs. Factual · Jul 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual Jul 2020 The Netherlands builds and calibrates its dams and dykes on extreme sea levels, including those estimated by modelling the tail with extreme value theory, not on average sea level. Factual · Jul 2020 Other global risks
Mostly false Factual Jul 2020 In insurance, survival functions are never used for hedging; expected shortfalls are used instead. Factual · Jul 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 30 Dec 2019 In 2019 Taleb gave a lecture in Lebanese, "From Ponzi to Localism", at USJ, broadcast on Lebanese TV during the riots. Factual · 30 Dec 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 29 Dec 2019 It is almost always different people who are getting richer, owing to rotation at the top of the wealth distribution. Factual · 29 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 29 Dec 2019 The richest 1% of people in 2019 are not quite the same individuals as the richest 1% of 2009. Factual · 29 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 25 Dec 2019 During 2019 overwhelming DNA evidence emerged that Southern Levantines had DNA indistinguishable from that of Imperial Romans. Factual · 25 Dec 2019 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 22 Dec 2019 Levantine Arabic is not a dialect of Classical Arabic (Fus7a), according to the works of @Safaitic and @PhDniX. Factual · 22 Dec 2019 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2019 In Hayek's account, knowledge is consolidated via prices and arbitrageurs, who trade products, services and financial securities, not binary bets. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2019 Morgan Stanley correctly predicted the financial crisis but lost $10 billion on its hedge. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2019 Value at Risk is not a coherent risk measure because it violates subadditivity. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2019 Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) satisfies the coherence (subadditivity) bound. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 2019 Financial regulators compute the recovery rate as the unconditional expected value of collateral, without conditioning on the default event. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2019 XIV, a volatility-linked exchange traded note, went bust in February 2018 after a sudden jump in volatility, while having been able to "predict" volatility correctly. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2019 For a continuous random variable X with CDF F_X, the variable U = F_X(X) is uniform between 0 and 1 absent additional information. Factual · 2019 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2019 Most natural and socio-economic variables are continuous and have no compact support, so no exact upper bound is known. Factual · 2019 Science and research methods
Mostly false Factual 2019 Since the 1960s, practically all economic and informational variables have been shown to belong to the D2 class, or at least the intermediate subexponential class, which includes the lognormal. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2019 The expected value of collateral conditional on default is often far lower than its unconditional expectation. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2019 Payoff terms of the form g(x) = 1 - x² are found in a typical contract called a variance swap. Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 11 Apr 2018 Taleb's Incerto is so far a five-volume investigation of luck, randomness and decision making under opacity. Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 11 Apr 2018 Only a third of Roman emperors died in their bed. Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Other
Resolved true Factual 11 Apr 2018 Skin in the Game is the last volume of Taleb's Incerto series. Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 11 Apr 2018 It had been reported that Donald Trump lost a billion dollars of his own money. Factual · 11 Apr 2018 Other
Mostly true Factual 10 Jul 2017 Taleb said he believes a minimum wage is definitely a cause of more unemployment, more use of robots, or jobs moving to places with lower wages. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 10 Jul 2017 Skin in the Game is Volume 5 of Taleb's Incerto. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 10 Jul 2017 The Romans never let a free person be a steward in a big state; they wanted a slave in that role. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 10 Jul 2017 In Switzerland, authorities go to the local population and ask what they want on such matters. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Factual 10 Jul 2017 Contrary to what political scientists say, people in practice do exercise the right to leave a jurisdiction. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Other
Mostly true Factual 10 Jul 2017 Fooled by Randomness is close to 20 years old. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 10 Jul 2017 Automatic transmissions used to be vastly more expensive than manual ones, though costs have since come down. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Technology
Resolved false Factual 10 Jul 2017 The United States is a federation, not a republic. Factual · 10 Jul 2017 Other
Mostly true Factual 11 Apr 2017 Church councils such as Nicea and Chalcedon and various synods of bishops insisted on the dual nature (man and god) of Jesus Christ. Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 11 Apr 2017 The Orthodox Church goes further, making the human side flow upwards rather than downwards, as in Athanasius of Alexandria's fourth-century statement that Jesus Christ was incarnate so we could be made God. Factual · 11 Apr 2017 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 18 May 2015 A study of inter-arrival times between tail conflict events finds that no particular trend can be asserted. Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 18 May 2015 The real mean of war casualties calculated by the dual method is considerably larger than the sample mean. Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 18 May 2015 The paper applies extreme value theory methods to the dual distribution and derives its tail properties. Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 18 May 2015 Naive observation of conflict data severely underestimates the tail risks of conflicts. Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 18 May 2015 Potential war casualties are bounded by the world population. Factual · 18 May 2015 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 18 May 2015 The paper analyzes the robustness of its results to errors in historical reports, accounting for historians' unreliability and missing data. Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 18 May 2015 The paper examines statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years and develops techniques for handling incomplete and unreliable historical data. Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 18 May 2015 The paper's statistical results are at variance with prevailing claims of a "long peace", i.e. that violence has been declining over time. Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 24 Dec 2014 Traditional portfolio construction in modern financial theory has operated under at least one of two assumptions: constraints derived from a utility function and/or a fully known multivariate distribution of asset returns. Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 24 Dec 2014 Under the paper's construction, the barbell payoff (maximal certainty/low risk on one side, maximum uncertainty on the other) emerges naturally. Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 12 Dec 2012 Nassim Taleb spent most of his adult life as an option trader. Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 12 Dec 2012 Nassim Taleb calls the mistake of applying artificial-lottery logic to real-world randomness the "ludic fallacy". Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 12 Dec 2012 Nassim Taleb says he gave the name "antifragile", for lack of a better one, to the class of phenomena that gain from disorder through a convexity bias. Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 12 Dec 2012 Theory is born from practice more often than practice from theory, with technology more often preceding science. Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 12 Dec 2012 At least five millennia passed between the invention of the wheel and the innovation of putting wheels under suitcases. Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Technology
Mostly false Factual 12 Dec 2012 Evidence from the performance of banks shows that in the real world betting against long shots does not pay. Factual · 12 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2009 Banks positioned themselves with no real upside and a lot of downside from black swans, receiving a little cash flow in exchange for bearing all the downside. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2009 Taleb warned that financial theories, financial-risk managers and quantitative finance practitioners were dangerous to society. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2009 Taleb says that in The Black Swan he warned against some classes of risk people don't understand and against risk managers' tools that could not fully capture the properties of the world in which we live. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2009 Before Europeans discovered Australia, Europeans had no reason to believe swans could be any colour other than white, and on seeing black swans they revised their beliefs. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2009 In the 1920s the German mark went from three marks to the dollar to three trillion marks to the dollar in a very short time. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 12 Jan 2009 The computer, the Internet and the laser were recent technological developments that came out of nowhere and were not understood when they appeared. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Technology
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2009 The Internet was not built to help people communicate in chat rooms; it began as a military application and evolved. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Technology
Mostly true Factual 12 Jan 2009 Taleb said the financial crisis occurred because people took many hidden risks, which meant a small blip could have massive consequences. Factual · 12 Jan 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2009 The public bore the cost of banking crises in 1983 and in 1991-1992. Factual · 2009 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2009 Taleb said the only important thing was that he had protected his clients. Factual · 2009 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 3 Apr 2008 Nassim Taleb worked on Wall Street for close to two decades in trading and risk management of derivatives. Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 3 Apr 2008 Today the entire banking system is dominated by a few very large banks, and almost all of them have the same exposures. Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 3 Apr 2008 Taleb said that a point he had just made, which mentioned J.P. Morgan, turned out to be true with the Bear Stearns rescue. Factual · 3 Apr 2008 Economics and markets
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Nassim Taleb

Open its page

Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

“the enlightenment, coupled with the invasive growth of “science” started finding statistical differences in the abilities of people of different races.”

Nassim Taleb, essay author November 2021 On Christianity (foreword for Tom Holland's Dominion) (Medium/Incerto)

The Enlightenment, with the growth of 'science', started finding statistical differences in abilities between people of different races.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judge against historical scholarship on the origins of scientific racism. The claim has three parts: (1) a timing, the Enlightenment (roughly the late 17th to late 18th century); (2) a mechanism, the growing authority of 'science'; and (3) a content, claims of differences in abilities between races described as 'statistical'. TRUE: historians document that Enlightenment-era naturalists and philosophers (for example Linnaeus, Buffon, Blumenbach, Hume or Kant) began asserting, on claimed scientific or empirical grounds, differences in abilities between races, and that this was new compared with earlier periods; and the 'statistical' description is fair for the period's quantitative or empirical methods. MOSTLY TRUE: the timing and scientific framing hold, but 'statistical' overstates the methods, which were taxonomic or anecdotal rather than statistical in the strict sense, with true statistical claims arriving in the 19th century. MIXED: the scholarship is evenly divided on whether the Enlightenment, rather than earlier or later periods, marks the start. MOSTLY FALSE: such claims of racial differences in ability mainly arose in a clearly different period (for example as a 19th-century development) or were already well established before the Enlightenment, so that the Enlightenment's role is overstated. FALSE: the scholarship shows Enlightenment science did not make such claims.

Evidence

  1. From Baconian Natural History to Kant’s Racialization of Human Differences: A Study of Philosophizing from Locations of Power Oxford Academic (OUP), book 'Kant, Race, and Racism: Views from Somewhere' · 20 April 2023
    “This chapter explains the originality of Kant’s theory of race and its practical relevance. Countless predecessors paved the way for him.”
  2. From Baconian Natural History to Kant’s Racialization of Human Differences: A Study of Philosophizing from Locations of Power Oxford Academic (OUP) · 20 April 2023
    “From Baconian Natural History to Kant’s Racialization of Human Differences: A Study of Philosophizing from Locations of Power”
  3. A Period of Doubt: Race Science before the Second World War Palgrave Macmillan (Springer), chapter by Nancy Stepan in 'The Idea of Race in Science: Great Britain 1800–1960' · 1982
    “Not until 1939 did Shapiro establish Boas’ conclusions beyond doubt by his careful, statistical studies of the changes in the body type of Japanese who had moved from Japan to Hawaii.”
  4. A Period of Doubt: Race Science before the Second World War Palgrave Macmillan (Springer), chapter by Nancy Stepan in 'The Idea of Race in Science: Great Britain 1800–1960' · 1982
    “This, in a nutshell, was the dilemma of race biology in the 1930s and 1940s.”
  5. From Baconian Natural History to Kant’s Racialization of Human Differences: A Study of Philosophizing from Locations of Power OUP Academic (Oxford University Press), chapter in Kant, Race, and Racism: Views from Somewhere · 20 April 2023
    “This chapter explains the originality of Kant’s theory of race and its practical relevance. Countless predecessors paved the way for him.”
  6. Skin Color and Race American Journal of Physical Anthropology (Wiley), author Nina G. Jablonski · 2021
    “Hume's and Kant's writings on the superiority of European Whites, the inferiority of African Blacks, and the immutability of racial hierarchies had potent effects on the views of government leaders and business interests in Europe and America from the mid- and late 18th century onward.”
  7. The history of science through the prism of race | BJHS Themes | Cambridge Core BJHS Themes (Cambridge University Press), authors Elise K. Burton and Sayori Ghoshal · 2024
    “The origins of race science proper are conventionally dated to the late eighteenth century, when European naturalists constructed taxonomic systems of organisms that included divisions of the human species into ‘varieties’ or ‘races’.”
  8. The history of science through the prism of race | BJHS Themes | Cambridge Core BJHS Themes (Cambridge University Press), authors Elise K. Burton and Sayori Ghoshal · 2024
    “Alain Desrosières, Theodore Porter and Ian Hacking have explored the linked rise of statistical thinking and race science within nineteenth-century Europe.”
  9. The beautiful skull and Blumenbach’s errors: the birth of the scientific concept of race BMJ · 20 December 2007
    “His original words also show how the simple, clear cut classification of five distinct human races displaced—against Blumenbach’s repeated warnings—the complex reality of gradations and the unity of humanity (including equal potential).”

Reasoning

E7 says historians conventionally date the origins of race science to the late eighteenth century, when European naturalists built taxonomic systems that divided humans into races. E6 records Hume's and Kant's 18th-century writings on European superiority and African inferiority, and E9 places the scientific concept of race with Blumenbach. Together these support the claim's timing and its scientific framing. The word 'statistical' overstates the methods, though: E8 links the rise of statistical thinking in race science to nineteenth-century Europe, and E3 places careful statistical studies even later. Under the criteria, that fits mostly true.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “The Enlightenment, with the growth of 'science', started finding statistical differences in abilities between people of different races.” (said November 2021). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c41cb5edba88, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c41cb5edba88

Claims without a verdict

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