Michael Burry

Prediction · Economics and markets

“I imagine the shares of these companies, in most cases, will become very boring before they become attractive again.”

Michael Burry, Scion fund manager, 1Q 2008 letter · 2008 · Scion Funds annual letters compilation (investorkurs.no)

Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The prediction is that shares of most financial institutions would go through an extended 'boring' phase before becoming attractive again. 'Boring' means a prolonged stretch of low volatility, range-bound and unremarkable price action. 'Attractive again' means a sustained recovery or re-rating. Judge this over the years after 2008, using a broad financial index (for example the KBW Bank Index or the S&P 500 Financials sector) and major bank stocks. True: after the 2008-09 crisis volatility, most large financial stocks went through a multi-month to multi-year period of subdued, range-bound trading before a sustained rally or re-rating. Mostly true: this pattern holds for the sector index and many institutions, but with notable exceptions or a short boring phase. Mixed: the pattern holds for roughly half of the institutions. Mostly false: most financial stocks recovered sharply without an intervening flat or low-volatility period, with only a few showing the pattern. False: financial shares as a group moved straight from crisis-level volatility into a sustained recovery, with no identifiable boring phase.

Evidence

1. [PDF] A Decade Later, Banks Set to Fly-high Again Nasdaq (Global Information Services), by Richard Lin, CFA · 2018

   “Bank stocks logged a 76% cumulative loss and took 94 months to recover to pre-crisis levels, much worse than the other sector average of -47% and 36 months.”

2. [PDF] A Decade Later, Banks Set to Fly-high Again Nasdaq (Global Information Services), by Richard Lin, CFA · 2018

   “Since the crisis, banks have largely recovered along with the broad equity market, even though the road of recovery was choppy (chart 1).”

3. Recovery In Financial Stocks Slower Than The Broader ... First Trust Portfolios L.P. · 3 June 2014

   “As of 5/30/14, the S&P 500 Financials Index stood 41.2% below its all-time high set on 2/20/07.”

4. Cyclical Recovery: What Works Best? - DataTrek Research DataTrek Research · 3 April 2020

   “Financials are usually the textbook early-cycle group, but the Financial Crisis and its aftermath meant this sector underperformed in 2009 (+17.2%), 2010 (+12.1%) and even during the Greek debt crisis in 2011 (-17.1%).”

5. A Decade Later, Banks Set to Fly-high Again Nasdaq Global Information Services (Richard Lin, CFA) · 2018

   “Since the crisis, banks have largely recovered along with the broad equity market, even though the road of recovery was choppy (chart 1). Bank stocks were the last to recover from the financial crisis.”

6. A Decade Later, Banks Set to Fly-high Again Nasdaq Global Information Services (Richard Lin, CFA) · 2018

   “Bank stocks logged a 76% cumulative loss and took 94 months to recover to pre-crisis levels, much worse than the other sector average of -47% and 36 months.”

7. A Decade Later, Banks Set to Fly-high Again Nasdaq Global Information Services (Richard Lin, CFA) · 2018

   “Bank stocks rising with the broad equity market but with much higher volatility”

8. A Decade Later, Banks Set to Fly-high Again Nasdaq Global Information Services (Richard Lin, CFA) · 2018

   “With all these encouraging developments, financial sector stocks finally recovered back to pre-crisis levels in November 2016.”

9. Federal Reserve BULLETIN Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2 September 2010

   “The Dow Jones stock price index for banks rebounded sharply beginning in March 2009, as market participants began to mark down the odds of a worsening of the financial crisis, especially after the completion of the SCAP.”

10. KBW Nasdaq Bank Total Return Index: Performance & Quotes, BKXTR Stock Price on Nasdaq Exchange MarketScreener · 4 November 2026

    “| 2011 | -22.56% |”

11. Fact Sheet First Trust Portfolios L.P. · 10 July 2014

    “While bank stocks have already rebounded significantly from their lows, the S&P 500 Banks Index still stood 47.2% below its alltime high (2/20/07) on 7/9/14.”

Reasoning

Independent sources describe bank stocks rebounding sharply from March 2009 (E9) and recovering along a 'choppy' path with 'much higher volatility' than the broad market (E2, E5, E7), with a -22.56% KBW bank index return in 2011 (E10), which cuts against a low-volatility 'boring' phase. At the same time, bank stocks took 94 months to regain pre-crisis levels, against a 36-month average for other sectors (E6). Financial-sector stocks regained pre-crisis levels only in November 2016 (E8), financials underperformed in 2009-2011 (E4), and financial and bank indices were still 41-47% below their 2007 highs in mid-2014 (E3, E11). This is consistent with a long period before the shares became attractive. The evidence thus supports the extended-lag element but contradicts the low-volatility element, and it does not cover individual institutions.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again.” (said 2008). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_a47063f0582e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a47063f0582e