Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
74 67 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
62 43 81 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Michael Burry's claims
24 claims
“Here is the link where I made the case last week that beneath the surface the October 6, 2026 record close in the S&P 500 looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.”
Michael Burry, X post 30 October 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-10-30 (X)
Burry made the case the prior week that the October 6, 2026 S&P 500 record close looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
True: a post, article or newsletter by Burry, published in roughly the week before 2026-10-30 (about Oct 19–29, 2026), argues that the S&P 500's October 6, 2026 record close resembles the March 2000 top more closely than any other record high since 1980. Mostly true: such a post exists with the same argument, but a minor detail is off, such as being published one or two weeks earlier than 'last week', or the 1980 cutoff or exact wording differing slightly. Mixed: he compared the October 2026 high with the 2000 top but did not claim it was the closest match since 1980. Mostly false: he made only a loose or passing comparison to 2000, or it was about a different market date. False: no such argument appears in his dated publications from that period, or he argued the opposite.
Evidence
- Michael Burry: Today's Market Mirrors the Eve of the Dot-Com Crash Benzinga (via TradingView) · 27 October 2026
“In an Oct. 24 Substack post, Burry examined all 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980.”
- Michael Burry: Today's Market Mirrors the Eve of the Dot-Com Crash Benzinga (via TradingView) · 27 October 2026
“Two dates ranked at or beyond the 95th percentile of weakness on all seven: March 2000 and Oct. 6, 2026, the most recent record for the index tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). No other record high in 46 years did.”
- Foundations: The Fate of the S&P 500’s Worst Stocks, the Y2K Analogue, and Time for Small Caps? Michael Burry (Substack) · 24 October 2026 Own record
“That article finished off with this Bear Market Heroes slide, which suggested that if this is 2000 all over again, today’s broken stocks, down more than 20% off their own highs at the recent October 6, 2026 S&P 500 Index high, could be a decent haven through the bear market”
- Michael Burry Says S&P 500 Looks ‘Uncannily Close’ To 2000 — And ‘Busted’ Stocks Could Be The Winners Stocktwits / Asianet Newsable · 25 October 2026
“He found that the Oct. 6 record was at or beyond the 95th percentile on all seven of his key market-top measures, which is a combination he says has appeared only during the final months leading into the 2000 peak.”
Reasoning
Benzinga reports that Burry published a Substack post on Oct. 24, 2026, which falls inside the required window. In it he examined all 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980 (E1). Only March 2000 and Oct. 6, 2026 ranked at or beyond the 95th percentile of weakness on all seven of his measures, and no other record high in 46 years did (E2). That amounts to arguing the Oct. 6 close resembles the March 2000 top more than any other record since 1980. A second independent report (E4) gives the same finding, and Burry's own Substack post (E3) compares the October 6, 2026 high with 2000.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “Burry made the case the prior week that the October 6, 2026 S&P 500 record close looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.” (said 30 October 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_41ad8c9944f8, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_41ad8c9944f8
Claims without a verdict
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