ClaimsPeople

Michael Burry

Michael Burry is a widely known investor who founded Scion Capital/Scion Asset Management and writes a paid Substack newsletter, reported by Yahoo Finance to have passed 300,000 subscribers.

593 claims collected, 191 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    74 67 80

    High confidence, 66 factual claims resolved. From 9 documents, 2001 to 2026; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 40 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    62 43 81

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2006 to 2011; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 3 checkable only against their own records. 1 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Michael Burry's claims

6 claims

6 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2008 Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 The S&P 500 could easily finish 2008 with a negative return, dragging down crowded value-oriented investment funds. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
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Michael Burry

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Today, I expect the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term”

Michael Burry, speaking at Vanderbilt lecture 5 April 2011 Transcript of Michael Burry's talk, Missteps to Mayhem (Vanderbilt News)

Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Test: were US easy-money policies still in place after the presidential term beginning 20 January 2013 started? Easy-money policies here means near-zero policy rates, quantitative easing, or similar accommodative policy by the Federal Reserve or the government. True: such policies were continued or extended into that term (for example, the federal funds target held near zero or asset purchases ongoing in 2013). Mostly true: accommodation continued into the term but in reduced form, or was clearly signalled for it. Mixed: not used. Mostly false: easy money was largely unwound before or at the start of the term, with only small remnants left. False: monetary policy had been tightened to non-accommodative settings before the term began.

Evidence

  1. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 30 January 2013
    “In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent,”
  2. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 30 January 2013
    “the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.”
  3. Transcript of Chairman Bernanke's Press Conference, September 18, 2013 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 18 September 2013
    “Thus, our total purchases of longer-term securities were maintained at $85 billion per month, in addition to the reinvestment or rolling over of maturing securities on our balance sheet.”
  4. Transcript of Chairman Bernanke's Press Conference, September 18, 2013 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 18 September 2013
    “The Committee anticipated in June that, subject to certain conditions, it might be appropriate to begin to moderate the pace of purchases later this year, continuing to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, and ending purchases around midyear 2014.”

Reasoning

On 30 January 2013, after the new presidential term began, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 0 to 1/4 percent and said it expected that range to remain appropriate while unemployment stayed above 6-1/2 percent (E1). At the same meeting it continued buying mortgage-backed securities at $40 billion a month and Treasuries at $45 billion a month (E2). In September 2013 total purchases were still $85 billion a month (E3, E4). This meets the criteria's test for true: near-zero rates held and asset purchases ongoing in 2013.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term.” (said 5 April 2011). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_563c17d474c2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_563c17d474c2

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