Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
Test: were US easy-money policies still in place after the presidential term beginning 20 January 2013 started? Easy-money policies here means near-zero policy rates, quantitative easing, or similar accommodative policy by the Federal Reserve or the government. True: such policies were continued or extended into that term (for example, the federal funds target held near zero or asset purchases ongoing in 2013). Mostly true: accommodation continued into the term but in reduced form, or was clearly signalled for it. Mixed: not used. Mostly false: easy money was largely unwound before or at the start of the term, with only small remnants left. False: monetary policy had been tightened to non-accommodative settings before the term began.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 30 January 2013
“In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent,”
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E2 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 30 January 2013
“the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.”
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E3 Transcript of Chairman Bernanke's Press Conference, September 18, 2013 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 18 September 2013
“Thus, our total purchases of longer-term securities were maintained at $85 billion per month, in addition to the reinvestment or rolling over of maturing securities on our balance sheet.”
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E4 Transcript of Chairman Bernanke's Press Conference, September 18, 2013 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 18 September 2013
“The Committee anticipated in June that, subject to certain conditions, it might be appropriate to begin to moderate the pace of purchases later this year, continuing to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, and ending purchases around midyear 2014.”
Reasoning
On 30 January 2013, after the new presidential term began, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 0 to 1/4 percent and said it expected that range to remain appropriate while unemployment stayed above 6-1/2 percent (E1). At the same meeting it continued buying mortgage-backed securities at $40 billion a month and Treasuries at $45 billion a month (E2). In September 2013 total purchases were still $85 billion a month (E3, E4). This meets the criteria's test for true: near-zero rates held and asset purchases ongoing in 2013.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term.” (said 5 April 2011). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_563c17d474c2, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_563c17d474c2
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Michael Burry
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Mostly false
“All personal income taxes collected in a year do not so much as add up to $1 trillion dollars, and yet by 2020 interest expense on our national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion.”
US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020.
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Mixed
“I imagine the shares of these companies, in most cases, will become very boring before they become attractive again.”
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Mostly true
“Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now in the cards.”
Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions.
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Resolved true
“The S&P 500 could easily finish the year in the negative, dragging many investment funds – too many of which are crowded into the same “value-but-for-a-dire-economy” trades – down with it.”
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Mostly true
“I expect that rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to drive these ratios higher.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.