ClaimsPeople

Michael Burry

Michael Burry is a widely known investor who founded Scion Capital/Scion Asset Management and writes a paid Substack newsletter, reported by Yahoo Finance to have passed 300,000 subscribers.

593 claims collected, 191 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    74 67 80

    High confidence, 66 factual claims resolved. From 9 documents, 2001 to 2026; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 40 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    62 43 81

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 2 documents, 2006 to 2011; 14 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

    Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 3 checkable only against their own records. 1 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 4 unresolvable, 2 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 73 (likely 66 to 79, high confidence), from 72 claims: 66 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Michael Burry's claims

5 claims

5 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Factual 3 Nov 2026 The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s. Factual · 3 Nov 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 9 Oct 2026 By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise. Factual · 9 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 5 Apr 2011 AIG was nationalized a few years after 2005 and the nationalization cost taxpayers some $180 billion. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 5 Apr 2011 Wall Street firms all used one single risk model in the mid-2000s. Factual · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 5 Apr 2011 US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
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Michael Burry

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Factual Economics and markets

“The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money 3 years in a row during the mid-1970s.”

Michael Burry, X post 3 November 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-11-03 (X)

The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Test: whether every investor or fund in Buffett's 1984 essay 'The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville' (as shown in its performance tables or other reliable records of those same funds) had a negative absolute return in each of three consecutive years in the mid-1970s (roughly 1972-1977). True: every featured investor had three consecutive losing years in that window. Mostly true: all but one or two did, or all had three consecutive losing years that run slightly outside the mid-1970s. Mixed: about half did. Mostly false: the claim rests on something real but overstates it. Examples: only a few had three straight losing years; most had only one or two losing years (for example 1973-74); or the 'three years' refers to underperforming the index rather than losing money. False: the records show most or all of them did not have three consecutive years of losses, for example because returns were positive in at least one year of every three-year mid-1970s span.

Evidence

  1. Charlie Munger: the 53% hole inside a 19.8% record Trading Primer · 7 October 2026
    “The partnership lost 31.9% in 1973 and 31.5% in 1974.”
  2. Charlie Munger: the 53% hole inside a 19.8% record Trading Primer · 7 October 2026
    “Eleven years of gains took $1 to $15.55 by the end of 1972.”
  3. Untitled Outstanding Investor Digest (reprint of Walter & Edwin Schloss Associates annual return table) · 22 April 2025
    “1972 +15.5% +19.0%”
  4. [PDF] 10 WAYS TO BEAT AN INDEX Tweedy, Browne Company LLC · 5 June 2026
    “Similarly, Windsor Fund’s three straight years of underperformance in the 1971–1973 period produced a cumulative decline of -11.2%, as compared to a cumulative increase of +17.3% for the S&P 500.”
  5. Walter & Edwin Schloss Associates, LP's Walter & Edwin Schloss - Part I Outstanding Investor Digest · 6 March 1989
    “1972 +15.5% +19.0%”
  6. Walter & Edwin Schloss Associates, LP's Walter & Edwin Schloss - Part I Outstanding Investor Digest · 6 March 1989
    “1975 +52.2% +37.2%”
  7. 10 Ways to Beat an Index Tweedy, Browne Company LLC
    “Pacific Partners’ Results ( 7.2)% 16.4 17.1 (42.1) (34.4) 31.2”
  8. 10 Ways to Beat an Index Tweedy, Browne Company LLC
    “The following, Table 2 and Table 3, show the year-by-year investment results of the seven investment managers in The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville:”
  9. The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville: Charlie Munger | Stockopedia Stockopedia · 26 February 2015
    “| 1972 | 8.3 | 18.2 |”
  10. The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville: Charlie Munger | Stockopedia Stockopedia · 26 February 2015
    “| 1975 | 73.2 | 44.4 |”
  11. Calendar Year Returns - Sequoia ETF Sequoia ETF · 8 July 2026
    “| 1972 | 3.01 | 1.09 | 2.48 | 0.23 | -0.88 | -2.83 | -1.51 | 3.96 | -2.25 | -1.77 | 4.87 | -2.46 | 3.61 | 18.98 |”
  12. Calendar Year Returns - Sequoia ETF Sequoia ETF · 8 July 2026
    “| 1975 | 20.81 | 9.33 | 9.03 | 5.18 | 4.87 | 6.64 | -3.46 | -3.74 | -2.05 | 4.41 | 2.11 | -1.55 | 61.84 | 37.30 |”

Reasoning

The Munger partnership lost money in 1973 and 1974 (E1). It had gains through 1972 (E2) and positive figures in its 1972 and 1975 table rows (E9, E10), so those losses were two years, not three. The Schloss table shows positive returns in 1972 and 1975 (E3, E5, E6), and the Sequoia table shows positive 1972 and 1975 figures (E11, E12), which rules out a three-year losing run that includes either of those years. Tweedy, Browne describes Windsor's three-year stretch in 1971–1973 as underperforming the index, with a cumulative decline (E4); it does not give the yearly returns, so it does not show whether each of those years was a loss. The 1973–74 losses are real, but the evidence does not support the claim that every featured investor lost money three years in a row.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s.” (said 3 November 2026). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_3393b3b67f88, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3393b3b67f88

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