ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

17 claims

17 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Jan 2016 Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Jan 2016 After five years oil stock prospects will be more questionable, and beyond 10 years much worse. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 On his suggested 20-year path, developed country equities will return 5.0% instead of GMO's current 5.7% normal assumption. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Implications for pension funds over the next 20 years will be similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls over 7 years, or moves sideways for 20 years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Grantham suggested a 20-year path in which rates return two-thirds of the way to normal, so that T-bills would yield around 1.2-1.5% real again. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Three mean-reverting paths yield similar 20-year returns: 2.4% a year (7-year slump), 2.6% (2-year crash), 2.8% (20-year whimper). Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Any assumptions including a modest reduction in abnormally high corporate profits give a very disappointing 20-year return path. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Corporate returns will slowly drop back two-thirds of the way to their old normal over 20 years (model assumption). Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 The Fed and central banks' practice of trying to influence the economy through lower rates is unlikely to go away entirely, even over 20 years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 3 Dec 2012 China will go from 50% capital spending to 30%, if lucky, smoothly over 20 years. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The growth boost from fracking will peak at about 0.5%, fairly quickly, within a forecast running to 2030. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Apr 2011 World population will have risen from 1 billion to at least 8 billion, and possibly 11 billion, over the 1800 to about 2050 window. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Jul 2010 Almost everywhere people will end up working into their late 60s until the baby-bust passes through the population profile, becoming less painful in about 40 years. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“The outlook I proposed for the S&P 500 last October of 2.8% real per year for 20 years – the whimper path – has fallen to 2.3% real at recent higher prices.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, letter author 2017 1Q 2017 GMO Quarterly Letter: Up At Night (GMO)

This quote could not be matched word for word to the source page.

Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

deadline 2037 is after 2026-10-29

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices.” (said 2017). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_133ec6802fc4, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_133ec6802fc4

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Jeremy Grantham? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.