ClaimsPeople

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham is an investor who co-founded the asset managers GMO and Batterymarch, is listed by GMO as its long-term investment strategist, and co-authored 'The Making of a Permabear'.

1,004 claims collected, 267 researched, 73 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 63 80

    Medium confidence, 42 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 2007 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 53 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    56 46 67

    Medium confidence, 31 predictions resolved. From 10 documents, 2007 to 2023; 15 documents sampled from 32 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 17 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 65 (likely 59 to 72, high confidence), from 73 claims: 42 factual claims, 31 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Jeremy Grantham's claims

142 claims · page 1 of 2

142 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Corporate profit margins have already fallen a decent amount but could fall considerably further. Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 Jul 2023 Grantham's guess was that within a year or two of mid-2023 there would be time for a fairly traditional bubble losing air, a fairly traditional recession, a fairly traditional decline in profit margins and some grief in the stock markets. Prediction · 5 Jul 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The odds of a major US market decline from January 2023 are lower than they were a year earlier. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Jan 2023 A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 "Polycrisis" may well be the word of the year for 2023. Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The Presidential Cycle, subsiding inflation, labor market strength and China's reopening may cause a pause or delay in the bear market. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 Stocks bought in January 2023 will give a much less disappointing return than they would have a year earlier. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2023 The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2023 The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 Grantham said it was likely (3 to 1) that the S&P 500 would reach its trendline value (about 3200) and spend at least some time below it in 2023 or 2024. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 If any of the major risk factors gets out of control, it might cause a severe global recession. Prediction · Jan 2023 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 In a worst case with severe recession, the market could fall 50% from January 2023 levels. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2023 The inflation-adjusted trendline value of the S&P 500 will be about 3200 by the end of 2023. Prediction · Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 31 Aug 2022 If history repeats, the current superbubble's end will again be a tragedy for markets. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 31 Aug 2022 Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 31 Aug 2022 In the final stage, fundamentals will deteriorate and the market will decline to a low. Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 8 Jan 2021 Grantham believes this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles in financial history, alongside the South Sea bubble, 1929 and 2000. Prediction · 8 Jan 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2020 Grantham's bet was that over the next few quarters from 2020, earnings and profit margins would be crushed. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2020 U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham said that, unless there were substantial unexpected negatives, this did seem to make the odds of a major market decline in the near future quite low, adding "famous last words?". Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 2017 Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Prediction · 2017 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham suggests that this reason for lower demand for capital and lower real rates will probably take a few decades to fade away, not the usual seven-year average regression period for financial ratios. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2017 Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 A corporate tax reduction will raise corporate profits for quite a while above where they otherwise would have been. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Changing the central bank policy of low rates is unlikely to be quick or easy, given 20 years of Fed support and adherents at the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham predicts that any effect of lower population growth rates on interest rates will take even longer than a few decades to fade. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Three factors are moving in favor of US profit margins in 2017, including oil and resource prices, which appear to have bottomed out and seem likely to compare favorably, and a likely moderate cut in corporate tax rates. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2017 Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham thinks interest rates lower than those before 1997 are likely to persist for years. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Grantham says productivity would need unexpected good fortune to accelerate enough to push interest rates up in the near term. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2017 Oil and resource prices appeared to have bottomed out in 2016 and seem likely to have favorable comparisons for a few quarters. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2017 Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 U.S. fracking oil will soon run off, revealing rising costs of finding ever-diminishing new oil pools. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 The shift to alternative fuels (electric vehicles, storage, climate policy, carbon taxes) is likely to cause oil's final paradigm shift. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as discussed in Paris, will not be achieved. Prediction · Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Grantham believes food faces long-term intractable problems that will threaten political stability around the world, deep into the future. Prediction · Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 A quick or dramatic recovery in demand for metals is unlikely. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Jan 2016 Oil use for transportation will not almost disappear within 10 years. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Forestry should perform above aggregate portfolio averages and be less volatile than equities. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Farmland is likely to outperform most other assets. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Mineral resource stocks are unlikely to regain their losses but will probably outperform from current low prices, as after similar past crashes. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Jan 2016 After five years oil stock prospects will be more questionable, and beyond 10 years much worse. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Cutbacks in oil exploration will almost guarantee another sharp oil price spike within two to four years. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 On his suggested 20-year path, developed country equities will return 5.0% instead of GMO's current 5.7% normal assumption. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Investors are likely to get very low returns in the coming years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Implications for pension funds over the next 20 years will be similar whether the market crashes in 2 years, falls over 7 years, or moves sideways for 20 years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Grantham suggested a 20-year path in which rates return two-thirds of the way to normal, so that T-bills would yield around 1.2-1.5% real again. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Three mean-reverting paths yield similar 20-year returns: 2.4% a year (7-year slump), 2.6% (2-year crash), 2.8% (20-year whimper). Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Any assumptions including a modest reduction in abnormally high corporate profits give a very disappointing 20-year return path. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Grantham proposed that discount rates returning two-thirds of the way to the old normal was more probable than either returning all the way or staying indefinitely at current levels, although he said both were possible. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 If wages rise and oil rebounds toward $100 a barrel by 2020, inflation could tick up, which has historically tended to lower P/Es. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2016 Corporate returns will slowly drop back two-thirds of the way to their old normal over 20 years (model assumption). Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Given the constraints of Congress, the event, which comes with possibilities of tariff wars and political unease, would seem unlikely to cause long-lived effects, though this is not impossible. Prediction · 2016 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 2016 The Fed and central banks' practice of trying to influence the economy through lower rates is unlikely to go away entirely, even over 20 years. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 London's financial business will be hurt by Brexit, long and hard. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 The case for partial regression of rates hinges on the possibility that the 1945-2005 post-war era will turn out to have been a golden era of global growth that will not be equaled again for at least a couple of decades. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Most UK corporations will lose easy access to the EU market because of Brexit. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2016 Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Mean reversion in the US equity market will far more likely be slow and incomplete than a sudden bursting. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2016 Grantham said his own estimate of a one-third chance that Brexit would not happen still looked good. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 3 Dec 2012 China will go from 50% capital spending to 30%, if lucky, smoothly over 20 years. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 There will be slow, steady progress, but Grantham does not think "we'll make it"; he did not say what "making it" would mean. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The US started drilling thousands of wells over the last five years, and will never drill as many wells in a year as it did in 2012. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 3 Dec 2012 The growth boost from fracking will peak at about 0.5%, fairly quickly, within a forecast running to 2030. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 Because drilling activity has peaked, fracking will help economic growth less in future than it has so far. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 If methane clathrates start entering the atmosphere, release might continue even if all industrial activity were stopped the next day. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Dec 2012 Grantham said he thinks "we" will pay a very, very high price. Prediction · 3 Dec 2012 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2012 Career risk and the resulting herding are likely to always dominate investing. Prediction · Apr 2012 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Fertilizer resources such as potash and potassium will become particularly precious. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If China stumbles and weather improves together, commodity markets will very probably break en masse. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction Apr 2011 World population will have risen from 1 billion to at least 8 billion, and possibly 11 billion, over the 1800 to about 2050 window. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If weather is friendly in the next year, grain will be in glut because farmers are planting every tillable acre. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 A constrained-resource world will see per capita affluence rise more slowly than otherwise and than in the past, leaving everyone but resource owners worse off. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If sun and rain come at the right time and place, there will be an absolute record crop. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Prediction Apr 2011 Several GMO colleagues agree with Jim Chanos that China's structural imbalances will cause at least one wheel to come off its economy within the next 12 months. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 If bad China and better weather outcomes strike together, it will produce a second once-in-a-lifetime commodity event in three years. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 There is a high probability that extreme weather will be a feature of the future. Prediction · Apr 2011 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 China's capital spending of about 50% of GDP cannot be sustained, and much of it is likely wasted. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 This is likely the beginning of the end of the rapid growth in population and wealth driven by the Hydrocarbon Revolution. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Raw material prices will rise and shortages will be common in a more resource-constrained world. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Almost all countries other than the U.S. will suffer lower growth from resource limits, but resource-rich countries will benefit relatively as terms of trade move in their favor. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 Hubbert's revised estimate that global oil production would peak around 2016, give or take, could prove remarkably accurate. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Apr 2011 Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 There is about an 80% chance that China stumbles or weather is better than expected, in which case commodity prices will decline a lot. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Apr 2011 There is at least a 1 in 4 chance that China stumbles economically in the next year or so. Prediction · Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2011 If China stumbles and weather is better than expected together, commodity prices will very probably break en masse. Prediction · 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jul 2010 When relative prices of quality stocks versus the rest of the market next cross fair value, the excess return for quality could be over 40 percentage points. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Jul 2010 There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Prediction · Jul 2010 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“They have fallen a decent bit already, but they could do a lot worse.”

Jeremy Grantham, investor, in WealthTrack interview 5 July 2023 Jeremy Grantham predicts stock crash (Fortune)

Corporate profit margins have already fallen a decent amount but could fall considerably further.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

Vague 'could fall considerably further' with no horizon or threshold; not testable.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Corporate profit margins have already fallen a decent amount but could fall considerably further.” (said 5 July 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_268a63653c0b, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_268a63653c0b

Claims without a verdict

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