ClaimsPeople

Elon Musk

Elon Musk is a business executive who is CEO of Tesla and CEO and Chief Engineer of SpaceX, and who owns X.

1,276 claims collected, 275 researched, 94 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    70 61 80

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2014 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 25 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    46 33 59

    Medium confidence, 21 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2016 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 93 unresolvable. 16 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    53 43 64

    Medium confidence, 33 promises resolved. From 10 documents, 2016 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 15 unresolvable, 9 not yet due.

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    44 24 66

    Low confidence, 5 guidance claims resolved. From 3 documents, 2021 to 2023; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

All types combined: 58 (likely 52 to 63, high confidence), from 94 claims: 35 factual claims, 21 predictions, 33 promises, 5 guidance claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Elon Musk's claims

94 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 27 Jul 2026 China already produces more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined. Factual · 27 Jul 2026 Other
Resolved true Factual 27 Jul 2026 Tesla has a product roadmap. Factual · 27 Jul 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 27 Jul 2026 Elon Musk has been advocating a multi-planetary civilization for a very long time. Factual · 27 Jul 2026 Other global risks
Delivered on time Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla expects to start CyberCab production in April 2026. Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026. Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Jan 2026 Musk has updated Tesla's mission to "amazing abundance". Factual · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla will end the Model S and Model X programs. Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 28 Jan 2026 As of January 2026, Tesla operates cars in Austin with no one inside, no safety monitor and no follow car. Factual · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Jan 2026 The Tesla CyberCab has no steering wheel or pedals. Factual · 28 Jan 2026 Technology
Delivered on time Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla expects to wind down and basically stop Model S and X production next quarter. Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 27 Jan 2026 Open AI models may be about a year behind closed AI models. Factual · 27 Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly false Prediction 27 Jan 2026 Tesla hopes to get European regulatory approval for supervised full self-driving in February 2026. Prediction · 27 Jan 2026 Technology
Mostly true Factual 2025 Many index and passive funds vote in line with Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations. Factual · 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2025 A company that has already gone public cannot create a super voting stock. Factual · 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 31 Dec 2024 X is the number 1 source of news on Earth. Factual · 31 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 30 Dec 2024 Musk said almost every legacy media outlet knowingly falsely described Biden as "sharp as a tack" just before the 2024 presidential debate, at a time when, he said, it was obvious Biden had dementia. Factual · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Prediction 30 Dec 2024 The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election. Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 30 Dec 2024 Community Notes only shows a note when people who have historically disagreed agree that it is valid. Factual · 30 Dec 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Mar 2024 Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats. Factual · 19 Mar 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Factual 19 Mar 2024 Old Twitter suspended and suppressed right-leaning accounts 10 times more than left-leaning accounts. Factual · 19 Mar 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 24 Jan 2024 Tesla once produced only about 10 cars a week, not long ago. Factual · 24 Jan 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Promise 24 Jan 2024 Tesla's first manufacturing location for its next-gen vehicle will be its Gigafactory and headquarters in Austin, Texas. Promise · 24 Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 24 Jan 2024 Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product. Promise · 24 Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 24 Jan 2024 Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time. Promise · 24 Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual Jan 2024 Tesla is very far along on its next-generation low-cost vehicle, as of the January 2024 earnings call. Factual · Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 29 Dec 2023 SpaceX achieved 96 launches in 2023. Factual · 29 Dec 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 17 Dec 2023 It took 66 years from first powered flight to a moon landing, and about 50 years have passed since the last moon landing. Factual · 17 Dec 2023 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 26 Jan 2023 Volume production of the vehicle under discussion will happen in 2024. Promise · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2023 Tesla FSD has accumulated about 100 million miles outside of highways as of January 2023. Factual · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 26 Jan 2023 If 2023 has no major supply chain interruption, Tesla has the potential to produce 2 million cars in 2023. Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 26 Jan 2023 Tesla's Cybertruck will have Hardware 4. Promise · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Promise 26 Jan 2023 Tesla is increasing 4680 cell capacity by another 100 gigawatt-hours, as announced at Giga Nevada. Promise · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024. Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Guidance 26 Jan 2023 Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky. Guidance · 26 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023. Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Tesla thinks demand for its vehicles will be good despite a probable contraction in the overall automotive market. Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 26 Jan 2023 Tesla expects Cybertruck production to start maybe sometime in summer 2023. Promise · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 26 Jan 2023 Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023. Promise · 26 Jan 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly false Prediction 26 Jan 2023 Hardware 3 will far exceed the safety of the average human driver, though not be as good as Hardware 4. Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 26 Jan 2023 Tesla has raised the Model Y price a little bit in response to high orders. Factual · 26 Jan 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 27 Jan 2022 As of January 2022, Tesla is seeing alleviation of supply chain constraints in almost every area. Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present. Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved false Guidance 27 Jan 2022 Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will start delivering Texas-built Model Ys with structural battery pack and 4680 cells after final certification, which should be fairly soon. Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 27 Jan 2022 In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories. Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved false Guidance 27 Jan 2022 If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 27 Jan 2022 Many of the supply chain shortages affecting Tesla are alleviating as of January 2022. Factual · 27 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Promise 27 Jan 2022 Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022. Promise · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022. Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2021 Over 10,000 people are needed for Tesla's Giga Texas through 2022. Factual · 31 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Promise 30 Mar 2021 Elon Musk is donating $20M to Cameron County schools and $10M to the City of Brownsville for downtown revitalization, with details to follow the next week. Promise · 30 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Promise 28 Mar 2021 SpaceX may fly a Starship on the afternoon of 29 March 2021. Promise · 28 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Promise 6 Mar 2021 Tesla will add a "Download Beta" button for FSD Beta to the Service section of the car display in about 10 days from 6 March 2021. Promise · 6 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Promise 6 Mar 2021 Tesla is doubling the FSD Beta program size with software version 8.2 and will probably expand it about tenfold with version 8.3. Promise · 6 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 4 Mar 2021 Starship SN10 landed intact (as of 4 March 2021). Factual · 4 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 3 Mar 2021 SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am. Promise · 3 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2 Mar 2021 The city of Starbase, Texas is being created (as of 2 March 2021). Factual · 2 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it. Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 27 Jan 2021 Liquid hydrogen has a density comparable to styrofoam. Factual · 27 Jan 2021 Technology
Mixed Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible. Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Technology
Delivered on time Promise 27 Jan 2021 Musk said Tesla was confident it would have excellent integration between Powerwall and Tesla Solar (retrofit and roof) before the end of 2021. Promise · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 27 Jan 2021 Tesla will price the new Model S $10,000 higher than the old model. Promise · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved false Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 27 Jan 2021 Musk described gathering surround video from eight cameras operating simultaneously with synchronized frame rates. Factual · 27 Jan 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 25 Dec 2020 The latest Tesla software update lets owners change the car horn sound to a goat, snake with saxophone, fart sound or holiday jingles. Factual · 25 Dec 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 25 Nov 2020 On 2020-11-25, Musk described a launch as a "life leader launch", saying it carried more risk than normal. Factual · 25 Nov 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Promise 24 Nov 2020 SpaceX aims to fly Starship SN8 on its first flight to about 15 km (~50,000 ft) altitude the week after 2020-11-24. Promise · 24 Nov 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 22 Nov 2020 The rocket was due to fly its 7th flight on 2020-11-23, landing on the droneship Of Course I Still Love You. Factual · 22 Nov 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 7 Sep 2018 Tesla is about to release software letting cars drive from highway on-ramp to exit, changing lanes and overtaking other cars. Promise · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Resolved true Promise 7 Sep 2018 Tesla will add video games to its cars. Promise · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Mixed Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars. Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Resolved true Promise 7 Sep 2018 Tesla is bringing out a new solar roof product whose tiles have solar cells embedded in them. Promise · 7 Sep 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 16 Jun 2017 SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Promise · 16 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Promise 20 Jul 2016 As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability. Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Factual 20 Jul 2016 When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone. Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Promise 20 Jul 2016 In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own ride-hailing fleet. Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla plans to address most of the consumer vehicle market with the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck. Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla will remove the beta label from Autopilot once it is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average. Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 20 Jul 2016 Providing solar power has been on Tesla's website for 10 years. Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 20 Jul 2016 The first Tesla master plan, written by Elon Musk 10 years before 2016, is in the final stages of completion. Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018. Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Prediction 2016 A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component. Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 3 Apr 2014 NASA called SpaceX to tell it that it had won a $1.5 billion contract. Factual · 3 Apr 2014 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 3 Apr 2014 At that point, when a fourth failure would have ended things, the company had virtually no money. Factual · 3 Apr 2014 Economics and markets
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Elon Musk

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“then make the tiles have solar cells embedded in the tiles.”

Elon Musk, interviewee 7 September 2018 Joe Rogan Experience #1169 with Elon Musk (Transcript) (Singju Post)

Tesla is bringing out a new solar roof product whose tiles have solar cells embedded in them.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Promise with no stated deadline: Tesla brings out a solar roof product whose roof tiles have solar cells embedded in them. Judged as of the date of evaluation. True: Tesla made available to customers, and installed on customers' homes, a roof product in which photovoltaic cells are built into the roof tiles themselves (as opposed to panels mounted on top of a roof). Mostly true: such a product was delivered, but with a minor difference in a detail, such as only some of the tiles being active solar tiles while others are inactive lookalike tiles. Mostly false: the product existed only as demos, prototypes or very limited pilot installs, with no general customer availability. False: Tesla's reports or credible accounts show the product was cancelled or never offered to customers, or that the product Tesla offered did not have cells embedded in tiles.

Evidence

  1. Tesla discontinues its Solar Roof tiles, not economically viable Electrek · 20 August 2026
    “The company has told third-party installers that it will no longer supply solar roof tiles going forward, only solar panels, according to two sources close to the program.”
  2. Tesla discontinues its Solar Roof tiles, not economically viable Electrek · 20 August 2026
    “At its peak, Tesla was installing roughly 21 to 32 Solar Roofs per week, according to Wood Mackenzie data — more than 95% short of the goal. In total, the firm estimated Tesla installed only about 3,000 Solar Roof systems in the US across roughly seven years.”
  3. Tesla's new Solar Roof costs less than a new roof plus solar panels, aims for install rate of 1K per week | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 25 October 2019
    “Tesla has launched the third iteration of its solar roof tile for residential home use, which it officially detailed in a blog post on Friday and in a call with media.”
  4. Tesla is ditching its solar roof tiles for a good reason - Engadget Engadget · 1 November 2026
    “TechCrunch learned that solar installers are still offering Tesla's Solar Roof depending on the timeline of the project.”

Reasoning

TechCrunch reported in October 2019 that Tesla had launched the third version of its solar roof tile for homes (E3). Electrek, citing Wood Mackenzie data, reports that Tesla installed about 3,000 Solar Roof systems in the US over roughly seven years (E2). That means the product went beyond demos or pilots and was installed on customers' homes. Reports from 2026 say Tesla has since stopped supplying the tiles (E1, E4), but this happened after years of customer installs, so it does not undo the delivery. There was no deadline, so timing does not apply.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Tesla is bringing out a new solar roof product whose tiles have solar cells embedded in them.” (said 7 September 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_f1f33969b71e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f1f33969b71e

Claims without a verdict

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