Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
70 61 80 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
46 33 59 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
53 43 64 -
Guidance
A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.
44 24 66
All types combined: 58 (likely 52 to 63, high confidence), from 94 claims: 35 factual claims, 21 predictions, 33 promises, 5 guidance claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Elon Musk's claims
5 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Guidance | 26 Jan 2023 | Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky. Guidance · 26 Jan 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Guidance | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it. Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Guidance | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
“And the 1.8 million cars, if we get lucky, it could be more.”
Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, on earnings call 26 January 2023 Tesla Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)
Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Quantity: Tesla's total vehicle production in calendar 2023. The guidance is about 1.8 million, possibly more, so it works as a floor of 1.8 million. True: reported production was 1.8 million or more (beating it is consistent with 'could be more'). Mostly false: production was below 1.8 million but within 2% (about 1.764 to 1.8 million). False: production was below about 1.764 million.
Evidence
- Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 2023 Tesla Investor Relations (Business Wire) · 2 January 2024 Own record
“In 2023, vehicle deliveries grew 38% YoY to 1.81 million while production grew 35% YoY to 1.85 million.”
- Tesla reported 485000 deliveries in Q4, bringing 2023 total ... CNBC · 2 January 2024
“Total annual production 2023: 1,845,985”
- Tesla reported 485000 deliveries in Q4, bringing 2023 total ... CNBC · 2 January 2024
“In its last earnings call in October 2023, Tesla execs offered guidance that the company would notch at least 1.8 million deliveries for the full year, a number they had revised down from a 2 million goal earlier.”
- SEC.gov | HOME U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed exhibit by Tesla, Q4 and FY 2023 Update Exhibit 99.1) Own record
“Q4-2022 Q1-2023 Q2-2023 Q3-2023 Q4-2023 YoY Model 3/Y production 419,088 421,371 460,211 416,800 476,777 14% Other models production 20,613 19,437 19,489 13,688 18,212 -12% Total production 439,701 440,808 479,700 430,488 494,989 13%”
Reasoning
Tesla's Q4 2023 release reports that 2023 production grew 35% YoY to 1.85 million (E1). CNBC independently reports total 2023 annual production as 1,845,985 (E2). Tesla's filed quarterly figures for 2023 (440,808 + 479,700 + 430,488 + 494,989) give the same total (E4). This is above the 1.8 million floor, so the guidance resolved true for calendar 2023.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky.” (said 26 January 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_6f48c5805cf3, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6f48c5805cf3
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Elon Musk? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.