| Mostly true |
Factual |
27 Jul 2026 |
China already produces more electricity than the United States, Europe and India combined.
Factual · 27 Jul 2026 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
27 Jul 2026 |
Tesla has a product roadmap.
Factual · 27 Jul 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
27 Jul 2026 |
Elon Musk has been advocating a multi-planetary civilization for a very long time.
Factual · 27 Jul 2026 |
Other global risks |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
28 Jan 2026 |
Tesla expects to start CyberCab production in April 2026.
Promise · 28 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Promise |
28 Jan 2026 |
Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026.
Promise · 28 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Jan 2026 |
Musk has updated Tesla's mission to "amazing abundance".
Factual · 28 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Promise |
28 Jan 2026 |
Tesla will end the Model S and Model X programs.
Promise · 28 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
28 Jan 2026 |
As of January 2026, Tesla operates cars in Austin with no one inside, no safety monitor and no follow car.
Factual · 28 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Promise |
28 Jan 2026 |
Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months.
Promise · 28 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Jan 2026 |
The Tesla CyberCab has no steering wheel or pedals.
Factual · 28 Jan 2026 |
Technology |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
28 Jan 2026 |
Tesla expects to wind down and basically stop Model S and X production next quarter.
Promise · 28 Jan 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
27 Jan 2026 |
Open AI models may be about a year behind closed AI models.
Factual · 27 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2026 |
Tesla hopes to get European regulatory approval for supervised full self-driving in February 2026.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2026 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
Many index and passive funds vote in line with Glass Lewis and ISS recommendations.
Factual · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
A company that has already gone public cannot create a super voting stock.
Factual · 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
31 Dec 2024 |
X is the number 1 source of news on Earth.
Factual · 31 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
30 Dec 2024 |
Musk said almost every legacy media outlet knowingly falsely described Biden as "sharp as a tack" just before the 2024 presidential debate, at a time when, he said, it was obvious Biden had dementia.
Factual · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
30 Dec 2024 |
The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election.
Prediction · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Dec 2024 |
Community Notes only shows a note when people who have historically disagreed agree that it is valid.
Factual · 30 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
19 Mar 2024 |
Political donations from old Twitter were 99% to Democrats.
Factual · 19 Mar 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
19 Mar 2024 |
Old Twitter suspended and suppressed right-leaning accounts 10 times more than left-leaning accounts.
Factual · 19 Mar 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Jan 2024 |
Tesla once produced only about 10 cars a week, not long ago.
Factual · 24 Jan 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
24 Jan 2024 |
Tesla's first manufacturing location for its next-gen vehicle will be its Gigafactory and headquarters in Austin, Texas.
Promise · 24 Jan 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Promise |
24 Jan 2024 |
Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product.
Promise · 24 Jan 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Promise |
24 Jan 2024 |
Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time.
Promise · 24 Jan 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Factual |
Jan 2024 |
Tesla is very far along on its next-generation low-cost vehicle, as of the January 2024 earnings call.
Factual · Jan 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
29 Dec 2023 |
SpaceX achieved 96 launches in 2023.
Factual · 29 Dec 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
17 Dec 2023 |
It took 66 years from first powered flight to a moon landing, and about 50 years have passed since the last moon landing.
Factual · 17 Dec 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
26 Jan 2023 |
Volume production of the vehicle under discussion will happen in 2024.
Promise · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla FSD has accumulated about 100 million miles outside of highways as of January 2023.
Factual · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2023 |
If 2023 has no major supply chain interruption, Tesla has the potential to produce 2 million cars in 2023.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla's Cybertruck will have Hardware 4.
Promise · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla is increasing 4680 cell capacity by another 100 gigawatt-hours, as announced at Giga Nevada.
Promise · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2023 |
Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Guidance |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, possibly more if it gets lucky.
Guidance · 26 Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2023 |
Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla thinks demand for its vehicles will be good despite a probable contraction in the overall automotive market.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla expects Cybertruck production to start maybe sometime in summer 2023.
Promise · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla expects to use the Dojo computer operationally later in 2023.
Promise · 26 Jan 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2023 |
Hardware 3 will far exceed the safety of the average human driver, though not be as good as Hardware 4.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2023 |
Tesla has raised the Model Y price a little bit in response to high orders.
Factual · 26 Jan 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
27 Jan 2022 |
As of January 2022, Tesla is seeing alleviation of supply chain constraints in almost every area.
Factual · 27 Jan 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved false |
Guidance |
27 Jan 2022 |
Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%.
Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
27 Jan 2022 |
Tesla will start delivering Texas-built Model Ys with structural battery pack and 4680 cells after final certification, which should be fairly soon.
Promise · 27 Jan 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved false |
Guidance |
27 Jan 2022 |
If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%.
Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
27 Jan 2022 |
Many of the supply chain shortages affecting Tesla are alleviating as of January 2022.
Factual · 27 Jan 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
27 Jan 2022 |
Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022.
Promise · 27 Jan 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2022 |
Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
31 Mar 2021 |
Over 10,000 people are needed for Tesla's Giga Texas through 2022.
Factual · 31 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Promise |
30 Mar 2021 |
Elon Musk is donating $20M to Cameron County schools and $10M to the City of Brownsville for downtown revitalization, with details to follow the next week.
Promise · 30 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
28 Mar 2021 |
SpaceX may fly a Starship on the afternoon of 29 March 2021.
Promise · 28 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
6 Mar 2021 |
Tesla will add a "Download Beta" button for FSD Beta to the Service section of the car display in about 10 days from 6 March 2021.
Promise · 6 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Promise |
6 Mar 2021 |
Tesla is doubling the FSD Beta program size with software version 8.2 and will probably expand it about tenfold with version 8.3.
Promise · 6 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
4 Mar 2021 |
Starship SN10 landed intact (as of 4 March 2021).
Factual · 4 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Promise |
3 Mar 2021 |
SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am.
Promise · 3 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Mar 2021 |
The city of Starbase, Texas is being created (as of 2 March 2021).
Factual · 2 Mar 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Guidance |
27 Jan 2021 |
Tesla may track to growth of a fair bit above 50% in 2021, though it does not commit to it.
Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2021 |
Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2021 |
Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
27 Jan 2021 |
Liquid hydrogen has a density comparable to styrofoam.
Factual · 27 Jan 2021 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2021 |
Long-range trucking with batteries is feasible.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 |
Technology |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
27 Jan 2021 |
Musk said Tesla was confident it would have excellent integration between Powerwall and Tesla Solar (retrofit and roof) before the end of 2021.
Promise · 27 Jan 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
27 Jan 2021 |
Tesla will price the new Model S $10,000 higher than the old model.
Promise · 27 Jan 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
27 Jan 2021 |
Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1.
Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved false |
Guidance |
27 Jan 2021 |
Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022.
Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
27 Jan 2021 |
Musk described gathering surround video from eight cameras operating simultaneously with synchronized frame rates.
Factual · 27 Jan 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
25 Dec 2020 |
The latest Tesla software update lets owners change the car horn sound to a goat, snake with saxophone, fart sound or holiday jingles.
Factual · 25 Dec 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
25 Nov 2020 |
On 2020-11-25, Musk described a launch as a "life leader launch", saying it carried more risk than normal.
Factual · 25 Nov 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
24 Nov 2020 |
SpaceX aims to fly Starship SN8 on its first flight to about 15 km (~50,000 ft) altitude the week after 2020-11-24.
Promise · 24 Nov 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
22 Nov 2020 |
The rocket was due to fly its 7th flight on 2020-11-23, landing on the droneship Of Course I Still Love You.
Factual · 22 Nov 2020 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
7 Sep 2018 |
Tesla is about to release software letting cars drive from highway on-ramp to exit, changing lanes and overtaking other cars.
Promise · 7 Sep 2018 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Promise |
7 Sep 2018 |
Tesla will add video games to its cars.
Promise · 7 Sep 2018 |
Technology |
| Mixed |
Prediction |
7 Sep 2018 |
Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars.
Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Promise |
7 Sep 2018 |
Tesla is bringing out a new solar roof product whose tiles have solar cells embedded in them.
Promise · 7 Sep 2018 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Promise |
16 Jun 2017 |
SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020.
Promise · 16 Jun 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
20 Jul 2016 |
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability.
Promise · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles.
Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
20 Jul 2016 |
When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone.
Factual · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Promise |
20 Jul 2016 |
In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own ride-hailing fleet.
Promise · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Promise |
20 Jul 2016 |
Tesla plans to address most of the consumer vehicle market with the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck.
Promise · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
20 Jul 2016 |
Tesla will remove the beta label from Autopilot once it is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average.
Promise · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
20 Jul 2016 |
Providing solar power has been on Tesla's website for 10 years.
Factual · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
20 Jul 2016 |
Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
20 Jul 2016 |
The first Tesla master plan, written by Elon Musk 10 years before 2016, is in the final stages of completion.
Factual · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false |
Promise |
20 Jul 2016 |
Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018.
Promise · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Promise |
20 Jul 2016 |
Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world.
Promise · 20 Jul 2016 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Prediction |
2016 |
A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component.
Prediction · 2016 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
3 Apr 2014 |
NASA called SpaceX to tell it that it had won a $1.5 billion contract.
Factual · 3 Apr 2014 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
3 Apr 2014 |
At that point, when a fourth failure would have ended things, the company had virtually no money.
Factual · 3 Apr 2014 |
Economics and markets |