Elon Musk

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  70 61 80

  Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2014 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

  Not scored: 20 unresolvable, 25 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  46 33 59

  Medium confidence, 21 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2016 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

  Not scored: 93 unresolvable. 16 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

• Promises

  Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

  53 43 64

  Medium confidence, 33 promises resolved. From 10 documents, 2016 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

  Not scored: 15 unresolvable, 9 not yet due.

  See the promises

• Guidance

  A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

  44 24 66

  Low confidence, 5 guidance claims resolved. From 3 documents, 2021 to 2023; 19 documents sampled from 33 candidates found.

  Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

  See the guidance

All types combined: 58 (likely 52 to 63, high confidence), from 94 claims: 35 factual claims, 21 predictions, 33 promises, 5 guidance claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.