Balaji Srinivasan

Factual · Biosecurity

“This is definitely spreading uncontrollably on multiple continents. So in that sense, it's a pandemic.”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee · 13 March 2020 · #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 — The Knowledge Project (HappyScribe)

COVID-19 is spreading uncontrollably on multiple continents, so it meets the definition of a pandemic.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: as of 2020-03-13, COVID-19 had sustained community transmission that was not under control in countries on several continents (for example Europe, Asia and North America), consistent with the usual definition of a pandemic (the WHO called it one on 2020-03-11). Mostly true: transmission was widespread on multiple continents but "uncontrollably" overstates the situation in some of the regions mentioned. Mostly false: uncontrolled spread was established on only one continent, with spread elsewhere limited mostly to imported cases. False: there was no uncontrolled spread outside a single region.

Evidence

1. Virtual press conference on COVID-19 – 11 March 2020 World Health Organization · 11 March 2020

   “We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterised as a pandemic.”

2. Data as reported by national authorities by 10 AM CET 13 March 2020 World Health Organization · 13 March 2020

   “Community transmission is evidenced by the inability to relate confirmed cases through chains of transmission for a large number of cases, or by increasing positive tests through sentinel samples”

3. Data as reported by national authorities by 10 AM CET 13 March 2020 World Health Organization · 13 March 2020

   “Five new countries/territories/areas (Jersey, Réunion, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Cuba and Guyana) have reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.”

Reasoning

At its 11 March 2020 press conference, the WHO said COVID-19 "can be characterised as a pandemic" (E1). That was two days before the claim, and the resolution criteria name this declaration as the benchmark for the usual definition. WHO's 13 March situation report defines community transmission as cases that cannot be linked through chains of transmission (E2). The same report records cases still appearing in new countries and territories in Europe, the Americas, the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean (E3). None of the quotes names the specific countries with community transmission on each continent, so the verdict relies mainly on the WHO's pandemic declaration, which matches the claim's conclusion.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “COVID-19 is spreading uncontrollably on multiple continents, so it meets the definition of a pandemic.” (said 13 March 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_9564ccec9ccf, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9564ccec9ccf