| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Jul 2026 |
you pay $100k+ for a four year degree, and then budget nothing for maintenance over the course of your life,
Not checkable · 26 Jul 2026 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Jul 2026 |
The existing model of U.S. undergraduate education is broken
Not checkable · 26 Jul 2026 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Jul 2026 |
That means you can be heads down during the week, head into the city on the weekends for fun, and get to just about anywhere in Asia within…
Not checkable · 26 Jul 2026 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Jul 2026 |
Our new campus will become a haven for global techno-optimism, with expedited visas, streamlined redomiciliation, and active recruitment of…
Not checkable · 26 Jul 2026 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
28 Dec 2025 |
Exit California.
Not checkable · 28 Dec 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
27 Dec 2025 |
California, the physical platform on which "it" is built, is collapsing; the surrounding text does not say what "it" refers to.
Factual · 27 Dec 2025 |
Other global risks |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Dec 2025 |
And the latter is the hard part.
Not checkable · 26 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Dec 2025 |
Alternative thesis: prompting is programming.
Not checkable · 26 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Dec 2025 |
So the rise is invisible, despite being all too visible.
Not checkable · 25 Dec 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
25 Dec 2025 |
Western states will eventually become so dysfunctional that they effectively cease to exist, after which a new era begins.
Prediction · 25 Dec 2025 |
Other global risks |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
25 Dec 2025 |
Notably absent: places like Warsaw, Dubai, Riyadh, Shenzhen, Bangalore, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, and Shanghai.
Not checkable · 25 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
24 Dec 2025 |
The technologist is the capitalist of the 21st century.
Not checkable · 24 Dec 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
22 Dec 2025 |
Tech money is the one thing keeping some of the economies of cities such as Seattle, Portland, Chicago, LA and Boston afloat.
Factual · 22 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Factual |
22 Dec 2025 |
Inflation is boosting US homeowners' property taxes without increasing their resale value.
Factual · 22 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
22 Dec 2025 |
American real estate will become more affordable only for those outside the rapidly inflating dollar economy, living abroad or holding hard currencies.
Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
Add to that the corruption of a failed state that takes infinite taxes but can't stop endless fires, and you get the Pacific Palisades.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
Powerful factions (NIMBYs, boomers) do not want US real estate to go down in real terms.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
22 Dec 2025 |
The new BYD chargers add 400km of range in five minutes.
Factual · 22 Dec 2025 |
Technology |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
22 Dec 2025 |
Electric vehicles now fill up roughly as fast as gasoline vehicles.
Factual · 22 Dec 2025 |
Technology |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
But all of those forces (libertarian, left, and right) want to bring the real price of real estate down.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
22 Dec 2025 |
Billions of dollars in California real estate lie fallow because of eroded property rights.
Factual · 22 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
very similar to what happened in Russia in the 90s after the end of the Soviet Empire.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
And real estate is really not very safe in a failed state.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
22 Dec 2025 |
US real estate has been dropping in real terms, measured against a basket of Internet currencies and Internet companies.
Factual · 22 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
22 Dec 2025 |
Gold can be stopped at TSA metal detectors.
Factual · 22 Dec 2025 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
22 Dec 2025 |
The compromise outcome may be that the nominal value of US real estate rises through money printing while the real value of the dollar falls.
Prediction · 22 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Citation |
22 Dec 2025 |
The Case-Shiller index shows US real estate at the top of a nominal bubble larger than the 2008 crisis peak.
Citation · 22 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
Safety came from getting outside the system, from exiting the failing system.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
Guns are only truly useful when the state fails, in genuine Mad Max scenarios.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Dec 2025 |
This is the EV flippening.
Not checkable · 22 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
17 Dec 2025 |
Base is hosting physical popups around the world and connecting them together.
Factual · 17 Dec 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
14 Dec 2025 |
China has many cities that specialize in specific products, such as Cixi for hair dryers, Wenzhou for lighters and Ningbo for home appliances.
Factual · 14 Dec 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
14 Dec 2025 |
But of course spatial concentration works for many industries.
Not checkable · 14 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
13 Dec 2025 |
California's security situation is deteriorating.
Factual · 13 Dec 2025 |
Other global risks |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
13 Dec 2025 |
Making money in that failed state is like picking up quarters in front of a bulldozer.
Not checkable · 13 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
13 Dec 2025 |
A laptop works anywhere. You don't need California.
Not checkable · 13 Dec 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
13 Dec 2025 |
In that failed state, the combination of targeted violence and untargeted anarchy will get much worse.
Prediction · 13 Dec 2025 |
Other global risks |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
Tech remarried capitalism.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
for the Western left tech became gradually associated with their enemy tribe of whites/males.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
The Soviets thought math would help them triumph over the capitalists, while the wokes think math is itself white and male.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
In the 1960s, parts of the Western left swapped out the working class for the wokest class.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
This was much like the Sino-Soviet split, but unannounced.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
Communism replaces G-o-d with G-o-v, putting the centralized state above all.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Dec 2025 |
It has been reported that the Western left's shift toward abstract expressionism and deconstructionism was partially sponsored by the CIA.
Factual · 12 Dec 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
Bitcoin Standard meets Network State.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
Keynesianism as Communism for wimps
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Dec 2025 |
Tech became associated with an enemy tribe.
Not checkable · 12 Dec 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
11 Dec 2025 |
Anti-technology sentiment will become the new anti-capitalism, with Kaczynski as its leading thinker in the 21st century.
Prediction · 11 Dec 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
11 Dec 2025 |
If you're Indian, don't move to America.
Not checkable · 11 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2025 |
Popups are the new startups.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2025 |
AI quantifies the cognitive cost of context switching.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
7 Dec 2025 |
But sometimes optics is the substance.
Not checkable · 7 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
5 Dec 2025 |
The man who wants to be CEO, because he gets to be important, should not be CEO.
Not checkable · 5 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
4 Dec 2025 |
Too many are interested in “tech” (by which they mean money) but they aren’t interested in tech (by which I mean math).
Not checkable · 4 Dec 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
4 Dec 2025 |
If frontier AI models plateau, on-device inference and open source models could fully catch up to them.
Prediction · 4 Dec 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
4 Dec 2025 |
Tech unicorn founders are much rarer than professional athletes.
Factual · 4 Dec 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Dec 2025 |
Stay small and get conquered.
Not checkable · 3 Dec 2025 |
|
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
30 Nov 2025 |
In the 2028 US election, the blue (Democratic) and red (Republican) sides will align against tech.
Prediction · 30 Nov 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
29 Nov 2025 |
Physical is the premium product.
Not checkable · 29 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
26 Nov 2025 |
The cost-of-living crisis is really a sovereign debt crisis.
Not checkable · 26 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Nov 2025 |
It’s 70% build, 20% write, and 10% fight.
Not checkable · 22 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
22 Nov 2025 |
This is the downward spiral that characterizes the darkest ages of history.
Not checkable · 22 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
21 Nov 2025 |
The lesson of deals is that if you have two, you have one.
Not checkable · 21 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Nov 2025 |
The optimal amount of AI in most things is not 100% nor 0%.
Not checkable · 20 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Nov 2025 |
Rule 1: don't use AI-generated text in public.
Not checkable · 20 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Nov 2025 |
AI text is the new lorem ipsum, namely lorem aipsum.
Not checkable · 20 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Nov 2025 |
Bitcoin and Zcash are ideological campaigns.
Not checkable · 20 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Nov 2025 |
If you can do it from scratch, you can take shortcuts.
Not checkable · 18 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Nov 2025 |
The political conflict is so intense because the West is in relative economic decline.
Not checkable · 18 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
18 Nov 2025 |
Western politics is zero-sum.
Not checkable · 18 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
16 Nov 2025 |
Infighting on the American right seems to have exploded since the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
Factual · 16 Nov 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
16 Nov 2025 |
He was the path to a peaceful capitalist reformation in Russia.
Not checkable · 16 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
15 Nov 2025 |
This is how I think about doing high tech in highly unstable jurisdictions.
Not checkable · 15 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
14 Nov 2025 |
A good life is more about win/win cooperation than the quixotic pursuit of zero-sum dominance.
Not checkable · 14 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
14 Nov 2025 |
being “alpha” all the time doesn’t scale.
Not checkable · 14 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
14 Nov 2025 |
Even Elon isn’t running the water supply or sewing his own clothes.
Not checkable · 14 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
14 Nov 2025 |
Individually alpha is collectively beta.
Not checkable · 14 Nov 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Nov 2025 |
The top destination for Indian talent may shift to the UAE and Middle East, with Singapore possibly second.
Prediction · 12 Nov 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not researched |
Factual |
12 Nov 2025 |
After the US-China trade war, China rerouted trade away from America towards other countries, and the US share of Chinese exports fell to 15%.
Factual · 12 Nov 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Factual |
12 Nov 2025 |
India is rerouting talent away from America towards other countries, and the US hosts only about 17% of the Indian diaspora.
Factual · 12 Nov 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not researched |
Factual |
9 Nov 2025 |
As of early November 2025, the S&P 500 is up in nominal terms, flat in gold terms, and down in Bitcoin terms.
Factual · 9 Nov 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
9 Nov 2025 |
The less desirable the location, the more desirable the location.
Not checkable · 9 Nov 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
9 Nov 2025 |
The Bitcoin-to-gold exchange rate may become the true price (benchmark) of Bitcoin.
Prediction · 9 Nov 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
7 Nov 2025 |
The G7 is like that car. It's the descending world.
Not checkable · 7 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
7 Nov 2025 |
Communism shatters economic relations, but ultranationalism breaks diplomatic relations.
Not checkable · 7 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
4 Nov 2025 |
Technological change > climate change.
Not checkable · 4 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
4 Nov 2025 |
Every time you fix a bug on GitHub, you’re solving a problem created by software with better software.
Not checkable · 4 Nov 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
We’re actually seeing the reverse of the “digital divide” of the 90s; the hard part isn’t getting people online, but getting communities…
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
And there’s also now a process: begin with a popup, and get your online friends in the same place at the same time for an extended duration.
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
Of course, it’s rare to have so many prominent speakers at a single conference, or to see attendees glued to their chairs long into the…
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Oct 2025 |
Olaf Carlson-Wee sees network states speed-running the path from bare land to Dubai and Singapore.
Factual · 12 Oct 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
Network State Conference 2025 was a smash hit.
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
12 Oct 2025 |
Kazakhstan has launched a national crypto reserve and announced a crypto city.
Factual · 12 Oct 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Factual |
12 Oct 2025 |
Murtaza Hussein sees network states as inevitable because nation states are lumbering like empires before them.
Factual · 12 Oct 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
we can take the once-functional parts of the 20th century rules-based order and rebuild them in a 21st century code-based order.
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
a popup is similar to a startup, with a roadmap for starting up small but eventually scaling up big.
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
In reality it’s about cloud first and land last — but not land never.
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
That means the cloud can take physical form.
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
Ultimately, the goal of the network state movement is to help create 1000+ friendly internet communities around the world that anyone can…
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
12 Oct 2025 |
if it’s successful, you can go from from a popup (which is a physical prototype) to a permanent (which is a production deployment).
Not checkable · 12 Oct 2025 |
|