Balaji Srinivasan

Prediction · Philosophy, ethics and society

“The second thing is people are going to lean harder into social networks and EA Sports and all of these online compliments or proxies for offline socialization.”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee · 13 March 2020 · #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 — The Knowledge Project (HappyScribe)

People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

Judged at end-2020. TRUE: usage or engagement data show clear pandemic-era increases (well above pre-pandemic trend) in both social networks and online or video games used as substitutes for in-person socialising. MOSTLY TRUE: both rose, but one rose only modestly or briefly. MIXED: one category rose clearly and the other did not. MOSTLY FALSE: only small, short-lived or isolated increases. FALSE: usage was flat or fell.

Evidence

1. 3, 2, 1 Go! Video Gaming is at an All-Time High During COVID-19 Nielsen · 2 March 2020

   “And as we saw big increases in TV viewing, Twitch engagement in the U.S. between Jan 1 and March 28 more than doubled, as hours watched grew from 13 million to 31 million.”

2. Discord says user abuse reports have doubled since last year | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 27 August 2020

   “The big takeaway is that the number of overall reports has almost doubled, largely because of the massive spike in user growth during the pandemic to over 100 million monthly active users.”

3. The Long Shadow of the Lockdown: How the Pandemic Altered the Way Americans Spend Time Online - Digital Planet Digital Planet, The Fletcher School, Tufts University · 16 November 2021

   “While social media usage increased slightly, it saw the smallest pandemic bounce, and tapered off in early 2021, dropping closer to pre-pandemic levels.”

4. 3, 2, 1 Go! Video Gaming is at an All-Time High During COVID-19 Nielsen · 2 March 2020

   “According to Nielsen Games Video Game Tracking (VGT), the number of gamers who say they are playing video games more now due to the COVID-19 pandemic has increased since March 23, 2020. The increase was highest in the U.S. (46%), followed by France (41%), the U.K. (28%) and Germany (23%).”

Reasoning

The gaming evidence shows a clear rise during the pandemic. Twitch hours watched in the U.S. more than doubled between January and late March 2020 (E1), and 46% of U.S. gamers said they were playing more because of COVID-19 (E4). Discord also reported a massive spike in user growth during the pandemic, to over 100 million monthly active users (E2). For social media, E3 found that usage rose only slightly, had the smallest pandemic bounce of the activities it measured, and tapered off in early 2021. Both categories rose, but social networks only modestly, which matches the MOSTLY TRUE criterion.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “People will lean harder into social networks and online games as proxies for offline socialization because of the pandemic.” (said 13 March 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_4c8a776ffc66, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4c8a776ffc66