In Silver Bulletin's final model, a Trump sweep of the seven swing states was the most common scenario, occurring in 20 percent of simulations.

True if Silver Bulletin's final 2024 presidential model output shows that a Trump win in all seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) was the single most frequent swing-state outcome among its simulations and occurred in about 20 percent of them (19–21%). Mostly true if it was the most common scenario and its frequency was 17–23%. Mixed if the frequency is about right but it was not the single most common scenario (e.g. tied with or just behind a Harris sweep), or if it was the most common but at a frequency well off 20% (more than 3 points away). Mostly false if it was neither the most common nor near 20%, but was still among the more common outcomes. False if the model's output shows it was a rare scenario or the figures contradict the claim outright.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 How did the polls do in 2024? It’s complicated. Silver Bulletin · 17 February 2025 Own record

   “Because probabilistic election models do this, that’s one advantage they have over simple polling averages — in fact, Trump sweeping all seven closely contested swing states was the most likely outcome in our model5.”

2. E2 How did the polls do in 2024? It’s complicated. Silver Bulletin · 17 February 2025 Own record

   “And Harris sweeping all seven states was the next-most likely outcome in our model.”

3. E3 Polling didn't miss much in 2024, says Nate Silver Newsweek · 19 November 2024

   “According to Silver's forecast, there was a 20 percent likelihood of Trump winning every swing state and a 14 percent chance of Harris winning every swing state.”

Newsweek reports that Silver's forecast gave a Trump sweep of every swing state a 20 percent likelihood and a Harris sweep 14 percent (E3). Silver Bulletin's own post-election review says the Trump sweep was the most likely outcome in its model and the Harris sweep came next (E1, E2). Together these show the Trump sweep was the single most common scenario at about 20 percent, which meets the criteria for true.