Nate Silver has moved his election forecast model back to his Silver Bulletin newsletter, where the probabilities are technically paywalled.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2024-08-13. True: Silver's 2024 presidential forecast model was then being published in his Silver Bulletin newsletter (not at FiveThirtyEight/ABC), with its headline win probabilities, or a substantial part of the model output, available only to paying subscribers. Silver previously ran his model at a different outlet, which makes 'back' accurate enough. Some free summary coverage is consistent with 'technically' paywalled. Mostly true: the model was on Silver Bulletin and partly paywalled, but the probabilities themselves were often freely visible, or the paywall began shortly after the claim. Mostly false: the model was on Silver Bulletin but the probabilities were fully free. False: the model was not being published on Silver Bulletin at that date.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 Silver Bulletin 2024 Biden-Trump forecast archive Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 29 July 2024 Own record
“Polling averages are free for all readers, while forecasts, probabilities, and additional detail on model inputs require a paid subscription.”
-
E2 Announcing 2024 election model plans Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 17 April 2024 Own record
“The model will run here at Silver Bulletin: I’ll publish polling averages for everyone, and probabilistic forecasts and additional commentary and data for paying subscribers.”
-
E3 Announcing 2024 election model plans Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 17 April 2024 Own record
“Yes, strictly. Over the years, I’ve had enough issues with people (mis)interpreting probabilistic forecasts that I deliberately want to reserve the probabilities for a more self-selected audience.”
-
E4 Harris is in much better shape than Biden. But she has one big problem. Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver, Substack) · 30 July 2024 Own record
“And again, for the model itself, just click here: this is a permanent landing page and will update roughly once per day.”
Reasoning
E2 (April 2024) says the 2024 model would run at Silver Bulletin, with polling averages free and probabilistic forecasts reserved for paying subscribers. E3 adds that this paywall would be strict. The forecast pages themselves, from late July 2024 (E1, E4), show the model running on Silver Bulletin with a permanent landing page that updated daily. E1 also states that forecasts and probabilities require a paid subscription. These are the subject's own published records, with no independent source, but together they show the model was on Silver Bulletin with paywalled probabilities as of 2024-08-13.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Nate Silver has moved his election forecast model back to his Silver Bulletin newsletter, where the probabilities are technically paywalled.” (said 13 August 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_1f94e4ba1353, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1f94e4ba1353
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Nate Silver
-
Resolved true
“a Trump sweep of the swing states was actually our most common scenario, occurring in 20 percent of simulations.”
-
Mostly true
“launching FiveThirtyEight was basically my fourth career after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics.”
-
Resolved true
“I’ve turned on the option for paid subscriptions.”
Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023.
-
Mostly true
“Overall we were quite happy and the forecasts were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls.”
-
Resolved true
“Too soon for a "this held up well" but looks better after Sanders polled at just 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa this weekend.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.