ClaimsNate Silver

“Too soon for a "this held up well" but looks better after Sanders polled at just 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa this weekend.”

Nate Silver, writing on X 23 September 2019 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2019-09-23 (X)

Factual Their own work or organisation Political

Bernie Sanders polled at 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: a poll of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22, which is widely regarded as the highest-quality Iowa poll (e.g. the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Selzer poll), showed Sanders at 11%. Mostly true: the poll showed Sanders at 10–12%, or the timing or poll identification is slightly off but otherwise correct. Mixed/mostly false: Sanders's figure was clearly different (e.g. 13–15%), or the poll was not the highest-quality one released that weekend. False: no such poll was released that weekend, or Sanders polled far from 11%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 Study #1835 CNN (hosting the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll by Selzer & Company)

    “EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21 AT 8:00 P.M. ET”

  2. E2 Study #1835 CNN (hosting the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll by Selzer & Company)

    “The Iowa Poll, conducted September 14-18, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.”

  3. E3 Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll (Selzer & Company) Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom (Selzer & Co.) · 21 September 2019

    “SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 21 AT 8:00 P.M. ET”

  4. E4 Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll (Selzer & Company) Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom (Selzer & Co.) · 21 September 2019

    “The Iowa Poll, conducted September 14-18, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.”

  5. E5 Elizabeth Warren surges and Joe Biden fades in close Iowa race, new poll shows | CNN Politics CNN · 21 September 2019

    “Sen. Bernie Sanders’ support has dipped to 11% in this poll, with South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9% and Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%.”

  6. E6 Elizabeth Warren surges and Joe Biden fades in close Iowa race, new poll shows | CNN Politics CNN · 21 September 2019

    “The CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, September 14 through 18 among a random sample of 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers reached on landlines or cell phones by a live interviewer.”

  7. E7 Highly-Regarded Iowa Poll Gives Warren Small Lead Over Biden - 270toWin 270toWin · 21 September 2019

    “Elizabeth Warren has a narrow 22-20 lead over Joe Biden in Iowa. That's the finding of the latest poll from Selzer & Co., conducted for the Des Moines Register. This is one of the most highly-regarded polls of caucus-goers in Iowa.”

  8. E8 Highly-Regarded Iowa Poll Gives Warren Small Lead Over Biden - 270toWin 270toWin · 21 September 2019

    “Well back in 3rd is Bernie Sanders, with 11%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 9% and Kamala Harris at 6%.”

Reasoning

The Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co. surveyed likely Democratic caucusgoers from September 14 to 18, 2019, and was embargoed for release until Saturday, September 21 at 8:00 p.m. ET (E1, E2, E6). CNN and 270toWin both reported that Sanders stood at 11% in this poll (E5, E8). 270toWin called it one of the most highly regarded polls of Iowa caucus-goers (E7), which fits the criteria's example of the highest-quality Iowa poll.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Bernie Sanders polled at 11% in the highest-quality poll of Iowa released the weekend of 2019-09-21/22.” (said 23 September 2019). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_488bdb85e02f, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_488bdb85e02f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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