ClaimsBill Ackman

“putting the company firmly on track to achieve management’s goal of more than $3 million.”

Pershing Square letter authors (Ackman) 2022 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square 2021 Annual Letter to Shareholders (GuruFocus) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Measure: Chipotle's average restaurant sales (AUV) as reported in its annual results or 10-K. Because 'on track' implies reaching the goal within the period management was then discussing, judge it by fiscal 2025. True: reported average restaurant sales exceed $3.0 million for FY2024 or FY2025. Mostly true: about $2.95–3.0 million by FY2025 and clearly rising. Mixed: $2.85–2.95 million, or above $3 million only on a trailing-quarter basis without a full year above it. Mostly false: $2.7–2.85 million, or the threshold was crossed only after FY2025. False: below $2.7 million, or average restaurant sales fell after 2022 and management withdrew or deferred the goal.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Document 2 - file: cmg-20260203xex991.htm U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Exhibit 99.1, Q4 and FY2025 earnings release) · 3 February 2026

    “| | Dec. 31, 2025 | | Sep. 30, 2025 | | Jun. 30, 2025 | | Mar. 31, 2025 | | Dec. 31, 2024 | | Opened | 132 | | 84 | | 61 | | 57 | | 119 | | Permanent closures | (5) | | (4) | | (2) | | (2) | | (2) | | Relocations | (1) | | (3) | | (1) | | - | | (6) | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total | 4,042 | | 3,916 | | 3,839 | | 3,781 | | 3,726 | | Average restaurant sales | $ | 3,104 | | $ | 3,132 | | $ | 3,142 | | $ | 3,186 | | $ | 3,213 |”

  2. E2 Document - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Exhibit 99.1, Q4 and FY2024 earnings release) · 4 February 2025

    “Average restaurant sales refer to the average trailing 12-month food and beverage revenue for restaurants in operation for at least 12 full calendar months.”

  3. E3 Chipotle (CMG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Finviz (republishing a Motley Fool earnings call transcript) · 3 February 2026

    “You know, we still have confidence in the long-term algorithm of getting to $4 million AUVs and approaching 30% margins.”

Reasoning

Chipotle's FY2025 earnings release filed with the SEC [E1] reports average restaurant sales of 3,213 at Dec. 31, 2024 and 3,104 at Dec. 31, 2025. The table doesn't state its units, but the dollar sign and the label only make sense as thousands, which means about $3.2 million and $3.1 million. Chipotle's FY2024 release [E2] defines the metric as average trailing 12-month restaurant sales, so both are full-year figures above $3.0 million and meet the 'true' criterion for FY2024 or FY2025. The metric dipped slightly in 2025, but management still pointed to a longer-term $4 million AUV goal [E3], so the goal was not withdrawn.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales.” (said 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_eca4dd37db28, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eca4dd37db28

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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  4. Resolved true Prediction August 2024
    “Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants this year, and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 locations in North America over time.”

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  5. Resolved true Prediction August 2024
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All of them

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