ClaimsBill Ackman

“In its land sales segment, the company is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year profits.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author August 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Semiannual 2024 Letter: A Review (GuruFocus) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The quantity is the full-year 2024 earnings (EBT) of Howard Hughes' land sales segment (Master Planned Communities), as reported in Howard Hughes Holdings' 2024 results, including any later restatement. 'Nearly $300 million' is a rough figure. TRUE: reported segment profit of about $275–310 million. MOSTLY TRUE: $260–275 million, or $310–330 million. MIXED: $240–260 million, or $330–360 million. MOSTLY FALSE: $210–240 million, or more than $360 million. FALSE: below $210 million.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 Document Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (Exhibit 99.1 to SEC filing; release dated February 26, 2025) · 26 February 2025

    “MPC EBT totaled a record $349.1 million, representing a 2% increase compared to $341.4 million in the prior year.”

  2. E2 Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results GlobeNewswire (issued by Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.) · 4 November 2024

    “contributed to a $30 million increase in the full-year MPC EBT guidance mid-point to $330 million”

Reasoning

Howard Hughes' Q4 2024 earnings release, filed with the SEC (E1), reports MPC EBT of a record $349.1 million, up 2% from $341.4 million the year before. That makes it the full-year 2024 figure for the land sales segment. It falls in the $330–360 million band, which the criteria rate as mixed. E2 shows that by November 2024 the company had already raised its full-year MPC EBT guidance midpoint to $330 million, which is consistent with the outcome landing above the 'nearly $300 million' estimate.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits.” (said August 2024). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_13c9f20e04c1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_13c9f20e04c1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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