Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022.

Measure: Hilton system-wide comparable RevPAR (or room-nights demand, if Hilton reports it) compared with the same period of 2019. Use US industry room demand from STR as corroboration. 'Normalize at or above 2019 levels' requires a 2022 period in which the measure is at or above 100% of the 2019 comparable figure. 'Sustainably' requires that it stay at or above that level, apart from trivial dips, in the following quarters into 2023. True: by Q3 or Q4 2022 the measure was at or above 2019 levels and stayed there afterwards. Mostly true: it reached roughly 97–100% of 2019 in late 2022 and moved above 2019 levels by early 2023, or RevPAR was at or above 2019 while room-nights demand was slightly below. Mixed: some months or segments (for example leisure) were above 2019 but the overall measure was not, or it was reached only briefly and then fell back. Mostly false: the measure stayed clearly below 2019 (about 90–97%) throughout 2022 and reached 2019 levels only after 2022. False: it remained well below 2019 levels (under about 90%) through 2022.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Hilton Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results | Stories From Hilton Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (via Stories From Hilton) · 9 February 2023

   “System-wide comparable RevPAR increased 7.5 percent and decreased 1.3 percent, on a currency neutral basis, for the fourth quarter and full year, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2019”

2. E2 Hilton Reports Third Quarter Results; Exceeds Expectations Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (Business Wire) · 26 October 2022

   “System-wide comparable RevPAR increased 5.0 percent, on a currency neutral basis, for the third quarter compared to the same period in 2019”

3. E3 STR: 2022 Data Shows Highest ADR and RevPAR Year on Record LODGING Magazine · 23 January 2023

   “Occupancy: 62.7 percent (down 4.9 percent)”

4. E4 STR: 2022 Data Shows Highest ADR and RevPAR Year on Record LODGING Magazine · 23 January 2023

   “RevPAR: $93.27 (up 8.1 percent)”

Hilton reported system-wide comparable RevPAR 5.0% above 2019 in Q3 2022 [E2] and 7.5% above 2019 in Q4 2022 [E1]. That means the primary measure was at or above 2019 levels for the last two quarters of 2022, although it was 1.3% below for the full year. STR's full-year US figures show RevPAR up 8.1% while occupancy was down 4.9% [E3, E4]. The quotes do not name the comparison period, but the figures suggest room demand was still slightly below its earlier level while RevPAR, which is lifted by room rates, was above it. That matches the criteria's "mostly true" case (RevPAR at or above 2019 while room-nights demand was slightly below), and the evidence does not show how the figures held up into 2023.