ClaimsBill Ackman

“CPKC has made considerable progress on realizing revenue synergies despite a challenging freight environment, and now expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author August 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Semiannual 2024 Letter: A Review (GuruFocus) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Read this as a prediction that CPKC would end 2024 with about C$800 million of new business won from merger revenue synergies. Judge it against CPKC's Q4/FY2024 results disclosures (January/February 2025). True: CPKC reported C$800 million or more of synergy new business secured by end-2024. Mostly true: C$760–799 million. Mixed: C$680–759 million. Mostly false: C$560–679 million, or C$800 million was reached only after 2024. False: below C$560 million, or CPKC lowered or withdrew the C$800 million expectation before year-end without meeting it.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call Transcript - January 29, 2025 roic.ai · 29 January 2025

    “I think we are pretty open around closing out 2024 in excess of $800 million type run-rate and I'm super pleased we've delivered and a little bit beyond that.”

Reasoning

On CPKC's Q4 2024 earnings call (E1, January 29, 2025), a CPKC speaker said the company had been "pretty open around closing out 2024 in excess of $800 million type run-rate" and had "delivered and a little bit beyond that." The speaker's statement that the company delivered a little beyond the $800 million figure it had set for end-2024 matches the C$800 million-or-more threshold for true, though the quote calls it a run-rate and does not itself use the words synergy new business. The quote uses "run-rate" wording and is the only source available, but it is the Q4 results disclosure the criteria point to.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies.” (said August 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_48a57340db95, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_48a57340db95

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Bill Ackman, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Bill Ackman

  1. Mixed Prediction August 2024
    “In its land sales segment, the company is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year profits.”

    Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits.

  2. Mixed Prediction August 2024
    “The launch of Smoked Brisket for a limited time starting in September, one of the company's most requested menu items, should further improve trends.”

    Chipotle's limited-time Smoked Brisket launch starting in September 2024 should further improve sales trends.

  3. Mostly true Prediction August 2024
    “We believe that UMG's underperformance this quarter will prove to be short-term in nature and does not impact our view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.”

    Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.

  4. Resolved true Prediction August 2024
    “Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants this year, and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 locations in North America over time.”

    Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 2022
    “we believe demand is likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later this year.”

    Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.