Bill Ackman: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

76 70 81

High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

68 54 82

Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

14 claims

14 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mixed	Prediction	Aug 2024	Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits. Prediction · Aug 2024	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	Aug 2024	Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time. Prediction · Aug 2024	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	Aug 2024	Chipotle's limited-time Smoked Brisket launch starting in September 2024 should further improve sales trends. Prediction · Aug 2024	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	Aug 2024	CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies. Prediction · Aug 2024	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	Aug 2024	Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects. Prediction · Aug 2024	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	2022	Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	2022	Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Prediction · 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	19 Aug 2021	PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021	Their own work or organisation
Mixed	Prediction	16 Nov 2020	Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020	Biosecurity
Resolved true	Prediction	17 May 2018	Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	17 May 2018	These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Prediction · 17 May 2018	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2016	Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Prediction · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	5 May 2014	Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Prediction · 5 May 2014	Economics and markets

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Bill Ackman

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“In its land sales segment, the company is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year profits.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author August 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Semiannual 2024 Letter: A Review (GuruFocus)

Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The quantity is the full-year 2024 earnings (EBT) of Howard Hughes' land sales segment (Master Planned Communities), as reported in Howard Hughes Holdings' 2024 results, including any later restatement. 'Nearly $300 million' is a rough figure. TRUE: reported segment profit of about $275–310 million. MOSTLY TRUE: $260–275 million, or $310–330 million. MIXED: $240–260 million, or $330–360 million. MOSTLY FALSE: $210–240 million, or more than $360 million. FALSE: below $210 million.

Evidence

Document Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (Exhibit 99.1 to SEC filing; release dated February 26, 2025) · 26 February 2025
“MPC EBT totaled a record $349.1 million, representing a 2% increase compared to $341.4 million in the prior year.”
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results GlobeNewswire (issued by Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.) · 4 November 2024
“contributed to a $30 million increase in the full-year MPC EBT guidance mid-point to $330 million”

Reasoning

Howard Hughes' Q4 2024 earnings release, filed with the SEC (E1), reports MPC EBT of a record $349.1 million, up 2% from $341.4 million the year before. That makes it the full-year 2024 figure for the land sales segment. It falls in the $330–360 million band, which the criteria rate as mixed. E2 shows that by November 2024 the company had already raised its full-year MPC EBT guidance midpoint to $330 million, which is consistent with the outcome landing above the 'nearly $300 million' estimate.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits.” (said August 2024). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_13c9f20e04c1, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_13c9f20e04c1

Claims without a verdict

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