ClaimsBill Ackman

“Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants this year, and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 locations in North America over time.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter author August 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Semiannual 2024 Letter: A Review (GuruFocus) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts. (1) Chipotle opened approximately 300 new restaurants in calendar 2024. Treat 285–330 as meeting 'approximately 300', judged against FY2024 openings in the Q4 2024 release or 10-K. (2) Chipotle stated an expectation to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time; this part is checked only against whether Chipotle publicly held that long-term target as of August 2024. True: both parts hold. Mostly true: the 7,000 target holds and openings were 270–284. Mixed: one part holds and the other clearly does not. Mostly false: openings were 240–269 or the target was materially different. False: openings were below 240 and the target was not stated as described.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2024 RESULTS; FOURTH QUARTER COMPARABLE SALES INCREASE 5.4% DRIVEN BY 4.0% TRANSACTION GROWTH; FULL YEAR 2024 COMPARABLE SALES INCREASE 7.4% DRIVEN BY 5.3% TRANSACTION GROWTH MarketScreener (reproducing Chipotle press release via ENP Newswire) · 5 February 2025

    “During 2024 we opened 304 company-owned restaurants, bringing the total restaurant count at year-end to 3,726.”

  2. E2 CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2024 RESULTS Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (investor relations) · 29 October 2024

    “285 to 315 new company-operated restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane”

  3. E3 CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2024 RESULTS Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (investor relations) · 29 October 2024

    “This will help us to achieve our long-term target of reaching 7,000 restaurants in North America and move towards a more global brand.”

  4. E4 CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2024 RESULTS Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (investor relations) · 29 October 2024

    “our ability to achieve our long-term target of more than doubling our business in North America and expanding internationally”

Reasoning

Chipotle's full-year 2024 results report 304 company-owned restaurant openings during 2024 (E1), within the 285–330 range treated as 'approximately 300'. Chipotle's Q3 2024 release (October 2024) refers to its 'long-term target of reaching 7,000 restaurants in North America' and 'more than doubling our business in North America' (E3, E4). Because it calls this an existing long-term target, it indicates Chipotle held that target around August 2024. Both parts of the claim hold.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time.” (said August 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3a577945b302, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3a577945b302

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Bill Ackman, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.