ClaimsRodney Brooks

“Now 2026 is looking impossible given the data from 2023 and 2024, and one of the two companies being on hiatus for all of 2025, and well into 2026.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2025 Predictions Scorecard, 2026 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Prediction Other

Brooks assessed that regular weekly suborbital paying-customer flights in 2026 were looking impossible, given the data from 2023 and 2024 and one of the two companies being on hiatus for all of 2025 and well into 2026.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2026 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Brooks assessed that regular weekly suborbital paying-customer flights in 2026 were looking impossible, given the data from 2023 and 2024 and one of the two companies being on hiatus for all of 2025 and well into 2026.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_e4621387f566, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e4621387f566

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “If electric sales continue to grow at 68% per year then 2025 would hit 28% of new cars in the US being electric.”

    If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.

All of them

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