Scientific post-debate polls showed voters thought Clinton did better in the second 2016 presidential debate.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judge using scientific polls (random-sample, not online opt-in) taken right after the second 2016 presidential debate on 2016-10-09. True: the scientific post-debate polls (e.g. the CNN/ORC and YouGov instant polls) showed more viewers judging Clinton the winner than Trump. Mostly true: most such polls showed Clinton winning, with one close or tied. Mixed: the scientific polls were split. Mostly false: most showed a tie or a Trump edge, with one favoring Clinton. False: the scientific polls showed Trump winning.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Clinton wins, Trump exceeds expectations, but few move | CNN Politics CNN · 10 October 2016
“Among voters who watched the debate, 57% said Clinton did the best job in the face-off at Washington University in St. Louis, while just 34% thought Trump did.”
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E2 Clinton wins, Trump exceeds expectations, but few move | CNN Politics CNN · 10 October 2016
“Respondents were originally interviewed as part of an October 5-8 telephone survey of a random sample of Americans, and indicated they planned to watch the debate”
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E3 Clinton beats Trump 47% to 42% in second Presidential debate YouGov · 10 October 2016
“According to YouGov's post-debate poll, which interviewed 812 registered voters who watched the debate, Hillary Clinton won the debate against Donald Trump by 47% to 42%.”
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E4 Pants on Fire! Trump claims all polls show he won 2nd debate PolitiFact · 12 October 2016
“But four national, scientific surveys all showed that not only did Trump not win by a landslide margin, he didn't win any of the polls at all.”
Reasoning
The CNN/ORC poll was drawn from a random-sample telephone survey (E2). It found 57% of debate watchers said Clinton did the best job, against 34% for Trump (E1). YouGov's post-debate poll of registered voters who watched found Clinton ahead 47% to 42% (E3); the criteria name this poll as an example of a scientific one. PolitiFact reviewed four national scientific surveys and reported that Trump won none of them (E4).
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Scientific post-debate polls showed voters thought Clinton did better in the second 2016 presidential debate.” (said 11 October 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_dcf4a2ab1a5e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_dcf4a2ab1a5e
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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