The previous Quinnipiac polls of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were quite a bit better for Harris than the latest ones.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Compare Quinnipiac's polls of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania released around 2024-10-09 with Quinnipiac's immediately preceding polls of the same states. True: in all three states the earlier polls showed Harris doing noticeably better on the margin than the new ones (a shift of several points toward Trump, e.g. about 3+ points or a lead flipping). Mostly true: the shift is clear in two states and smaller but in the same direction in the third, or the shifts are in the right direction but somewhat smaller than 'quite a bit'. Mixed: the earlier polls were better for Harris in only some states, or the changes were marginal. Mostly false: the changes were within a point or two in most states. False: the earlier polls were not better for Harris, or were worse.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Release October 9, 2024 Quinnipiac University Poll · 9 October 2024
“This compares to September when Harris led with 51 percent support, Trump received 45 percent support”
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E2 Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Release October 9, 2024 Quinnipiac University Poll · 9 October 2024
“This compares to September when Harris received 50 percent support, Trump received 45 percent”
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E3 Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Release October 9, 2024 Quinnipiac University Poll · 9 October 2024
“This compares to September when Harris received 48 percent support, Trump received 47 percent”
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E4 Harris leaking support in Michigan and Wisconsin: Poll Washington Examiner · 9 October 2024
“Trump is leading 51% to 47% in Michigan and 49% to 47% in Wisconsin, a staggering change in the same poll from mid-September, which showed Harris leading 50% to 45% in Michigan and 48% to 47% in Wisconsin.”
Reasoning
E4 reports that in the October Quinnipiac polls Trump led 51–47 in Michigan and 49–47 in Wisconsin. The previous mid-September polls had Harris ahead 50–45 in Michigan and 48–47 in Wisconsin, which matches E2 and E3. That is a 9-point swing toward Trump in Michigan and a 3-point swing in Wisconsin, where the lead flipped, so the claim holds clearly for both states. E1 gives a September result of Harris 51–45, probably Pennsylvania's, but the quote does not name the state and no evidence gives Pennsylvania's October figure, so the third state cannot be confirmed.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “The previous Quinnipiac polls of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were quite a bit better for Harris than the latest ones.” (said 9 October 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_945dac4cfcbd, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_945dac4cfcbd
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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