Dozens of election polls are released every week.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Count the US election polls (presidential national and state, possibly plus down-ballot) released per week in late September to early October 2024. True: poll databases show at least about 24 polls (two dozen or more) released in a typical week of that period. Mostly true: weekly counts are around 20–24, or reach 'dozens' only when down-ballot polls are included. Mixed: only some weeks reach two dozen. Mostly false: typical weekly counts are around 12–19. False: typical weekly counts are below about a dozen.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Why there are fewer polls this election Semafor · 25 October 2024
“Politico’s polling reporter Steven Shepard lamented that last weekend bizarrely passed without any major polls of note nationally or in battlegrounds, although they picked up later this week on both counts.”
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E2 Why there are fewer polls this election Semafor · 25 October 2024
““There are plenty of polls still so that’s not really a problem for the models,” he said.”
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E3 2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality ABC News (538) · 28 October 2024
“So far this year, we've collected 1,532 national, state and district-level polls from 209 pollsters conducted between early May and late October”
Reasoning
E3 (538) reports collecting 1,532 national, state and district-level polls conducted between early May and late October 2024. That is roughly 25 weeks, so the average is about 60 polls a week, well above the two-dozen threshold. This is an average over the whole span rather than a count for late September to early October specifically. E1 notes one weekend with no major polls but says releases picked up later that week, and E2 quotes a source saying there were still plenty of polls. Taken together, the evidence suggests that dozens of polls a week were typical across the cycle, though it gives no weekly count for the period being judged.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Dozens of election polls are released every week.” (said 9 October 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_98ef0021f973, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_98ef0021f973
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Nate Silver
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“The recognition that the election is only four weeks away.”
As of early October 2024, the US presidential election is about four weeks away.
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“The Wall Street Journal employs a polling partnership between a Republican and a Democratic polling firm — essentially a form of adversarial collaboration, a technique that often yields reliable…”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.