ClaimsNate Silver

“The Wall Street Journal employs a polling partnership between a Republican and a Democratic polling firm — essentially a form of adversarial collaboration, a technique that often yields reliable results.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 September 2023 It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

The Wall Street Journal polls in partnership between a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2023-09-08. True: the Wall Street Journal's national polls at that time were jointly conducted by one Republican-aligned polling firm and one Democratic-aligned polling firm (for example a named GOP pollster paired with a named Democratic pollster). Mostly true: the bipartisan pairing was in place but with a minor detail off (e.g. it applied to most rather than all WSJ polls, or one firm's partisan label is loosely applied). Mixed: such a partnership existed for some WSJ polling but WSJ's main polls were run differently. Mostly false: the bipartisan arrangement had existed in the past (e.g. under a former media partner) but not for WSJ polls as of the claim date. False: WSJ polls at the time were run by a single nonpartisan or single-party firm, or WSJ ran no such polls. The remark that adversarial collaboration 'often yields reliable results' is commentary and does not decide the verdict.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Dow Jones & The Wall Street Journal Announce Major Investments in New Polling Initiatives Dow Jones · 7 December 2021

    “The Wall Street Journal Poll brings together firms led by John Anzalone, lead pollster for President Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, and Tony Fabrizio, lead pollster for former President Trump’s presidential campaigns, for quarterly polls exploring political trends and voter sentiments across the nation.”
  2. E2 Trump campaign paid pollster hired by Wall Street Journal $600,000 just in 2023: records Raw Story · 5 September 2023

    “But the most recent poll from the Wall Street Journal lambasting President Joe Biden for being too old to run for president was also conducted by Tony Fabrizio, in conjunction with another pollster, Michael Bocian, who works with some Democratic candidates but not the Biden campaign.”
  3. E3 WSJ_NORC Topline March2023 Wall Street Journal / NORC at the University of Chicago

    “This survey, funded by the Wall Street Journal, was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago.”
  4. E4 The Wall Street Journal/NORC Polling Partnership | NORC at the University of Chicago NORC at the University of Chicago · 12 January 2023

    “In December 2021, Dow Jones & The Wall Street Journal announced the launch of a new polling partnership with NORC at the University of Chicago to conduct surveys on cultural and social issues of importance.”

Reasoning

E1 (Dow Jones, 2021) says The Wall Street Journal Poll pairs firms led by Democratic pollster John Anzalone and Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio for quarterly political polls. E2 (2023-09-05) reports that the most recent WSJ poll was conducted by Fabrizio together with Michael Bocian, who works with Democratic candidates, so the bipartisan pairing was in place at the claim date. E3 and E4 show that WSJ also had a separate polling partnership with NORC at the University of Chicago for surveys on cultural and social issues, with NORC alone conducting the March 2023 survey, so the bipartisan pairing covered WSJ's main political poll but not all WSJ polling.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “The Wall Street Journal polls in partnership between a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_44dbeaff7dbe, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_44dbeaff7dbe

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly true Factual 9 October 2024
    “The previous Quinnipiac polls of these states had been quite a bit better for Harris.”

    The previous Quinnipiac polls of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were quite a bit better for Harris than the latest ones.

  2. Resolved true Factual 9 October 2024
    “Although John McCain had periods of strong polling in 2008, especially after the Republican Convention, in the end Barack Obama won in a landslide that didn’t justify Democrats’ constant anxieties.”

    John McCain had periods of strong polling in 2008, especially after the Republican Convention, but Barack Obama won in a landslide.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 October 2024
    “The recognition that the election is only four weeks away.”

    As of early October 2024, the US presidential election is about four weeks away.

  4. Resolved true Factual 9 October 2024
    “And yet, there are dozens of polls released every week.”

    Dozens of election polls are released every week.

  5. Mostly true Factual 8 October 2024
    “This property is even more profound in baseball, where single-run leads are relatively durable because runs tend to come in bunches and the default outcome is not to score at all.”

    In baseball, single-run leads are relatively durable because runs tend to come in bunches and the default outcome is not to score at all.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.