ClaimsScott Alexander

“our main SF endorsement is Scott Wiener for Congress.”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation Political

ACX's main San Francisco endorsement for the 2026 election is Scott Wiener for Congress.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

What would count as true or false

True if the ACX (Astral Codex Ten) 2026 election endorsement post published on or around 2026-10-19 names Scott Wiener's run for Congress as its main, primary or headline San Francisco endorsement. Mostly true if the post endorses Wiener for Congress as a leading SF pick but the wording differs slightly, e.g. he is one of a few top SF endorsements rather than the only one. Mixed if the post endorses Wiener for Congress but clearly makes a different SF race or measure the main endorsement. Mostly false if the post endorses Wiener for a different office, or only mentions him favourably without endorsing him. False if the post endorses someone else in that congressional race, or makes no endorsement of Wiener.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 My California Ballot, 2026 Astral Codex Ten · 28 October 2026 Own record

    “effective altruist movement leadership tells me that their strongest opinion this year is to vote Scott Wiener for Congress in San Francisco.”

  2. E2 My California Ballot, 2026 Astral Codex Ten · 28 October 2026 Own record

    “Here’s how I’m voting (Oakland, Alameda County, California):”

  3. E3 My California Ballot, 2026 Astral Codex Ten · 28 October 2026 Own record

    “And effective altruist movement leadership tells me that their strongest opinion this year is to vote Scott Wiener for Congress in San Francisco.”

  4. E4 My California Ballot, 2026 Astral Codex Ten · 28 October 2026 Own record

    “See also ACX meetup groups’ ballot guides to Atlanta, Austin, Boston, the North Carolina Research Triangle, and San Francisco.”

  5. E5 My California Ballot, 2026 Astral Codex Ten · 28 October 2026 Own record

    “Here’s how I’m voting (Oakland, Alameda County, California):”

  6. E6 Astral Codex Ten | Scott Alexander | Substack Substack (Astral Codex Ten, Scott Alexander) Own record

    “My California Ballot, 2026”

  7. E7 Astral Codex Ten | Scott Alexander | Substack Substack (Astral Codex Ten, Scott Alexander) Own record

    “Oct 28 • Scott Alexander”

  8. E8 California election endorsements: SF Chronicle voter guide San Francisco Chronicle · 5 October 2026

    “With Scott Wiener, San Franciscans would send the state’s most relentless and effective legislator to Washington to zero in on universal healthcare, humane immigration policies, protections for the LGBTQ community and preserving democracy from President Donald Trump.”

Reasoning

The only ACX post in the evidence is 'My California Ballot, 2026', dated 2026-10-28 (E1, E6, E7). It says that effective altruist movement leadership's "strongest opinion this year is to vote Scott Wiener for Congress in San Francisco" (E1, E3). It presents the author's own picks as an Oakland/Alameda ballot (E2, E5) and sends readers to a separate SF guide by ACX meetup groups (E4). So the post passes on a recommendation from someone else and does not, in the quoted text, name Wiener as ACX's own main SF endorsement. No post from around 2026-10-19 with the claimed wording is in the evidence, and the SF Chronicle item (E8) is a different outlet's endorsement, so the evidence does not settle the criteria.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “ACX's main San Francisco endorsement for the 2026 election is Scott Wiener for Congress.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c6886d3b795f, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c6886d3b795f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”

    Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.

  2. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here.”

    Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.

  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “There’s a good interview with Skarbek in last month’s issue of Asterisk, I think it will be online shortly.”

    Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.

  4. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
    “Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”

    In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions.

  5. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

    In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

All of them

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