ClaimsScott Alexander

“Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 5 October 2026 Open Thread 454 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True if, as of 2026-10-05, Nikita Sokolsky had both obtained additional Fatima-related documents from Portugal and finished translating them into English. Examples of evidence: published translations, or a post by Sokolsky or ACX presenting the finished work. Mostly true if the work was essentially finished with a small detail wrong, for example the documents came via a Portuguese archive accessed online, or a few minor items were still pending. Mostly false if the documents had been obtained but the translation was only partly done, or the project was still ongoing at that date. False if the evidence shows no such documents were obtained or translated by that date, or that the work was done by someone else.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 Open Thread 454 - Halt Mal Halt Mal (third-party site) · 6 October 2026

    “It also credits reader Nikita Sokolsky with obtaining additional documents from Portugal related to Fatima and translating them into English.”

  2. E2 Open Thread 430 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 20 April 2026 Own record

    “Buy Volume 3 of Critical Documentation of Fatima, which is AFAIK only in stock in this Portuguese store”

  3. E3 Open Thread 411 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 8 December 2025 Own record

    “Here’s his version of Critical Documentation Volume 4 (he wanted Volume 3, but they sent him 4 by mistake; he hopes to get 3 later).”

  4. E4 Highlights From The Comments On Fatima Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 24 October 2025 Own record

    “I’ve ordered Volume III - though shipping anywhere outside Portugal cost $48 (not surprising for a 639 page book, I guess). They promise delivery by Oct 12th.”

  5. E5 About & method fatima-1917.com · 9 October 2026

    “Not yet included: the full DCF vols. I, II, IV and V/1–3, 5–6. Accounts that appear only there will be added as those volumes are scanned.”

  6. E6 About & method fatima-1917.com · 9 October 2026

    “Data last built 2026-10-09: 471 passages, 168 witnesses, 182 documents.”

  7. E7 Nikita Sokolsky

    “Personal projects - pow-finder - rankmyweather - fatima-1917”

  8. E8 Open Thread 454 - What if Monsters What if Monsters · 7 October 2026

    “Among the listed updates, reader Nikita Sokolsky completed work obtaining additional Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”

Reasoning

E7 lists fatima-1917 as one of Sokolsky's personal projects. That site reports a built dataset of 182 documents and 471 passages as of 2026-10-09 (E6), so published output linked to him existed around the claim date. E3 and E4 show that in 2025 Volume III of the Critical Documentation of Fatima was ordered and Volume 4 was received by mistake; E2 shows readers were still being pointed to a Portuguese store for Volume 3 in April 2026. E1 and E8 only repeat the ACX announcement, but E5 says several DCF volumes are not yet included and will be added later. So the specific extra documents look finished and published, with the wider collection still incomplete.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.” (said 5 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_068306a6f01c, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_068306a6f01c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here.”

    Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.

  2. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “There’s a good interview with Skarbek in last month’s issue of Asterisk, I think it will be online shortly.”

    Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.

  3. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
    “Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”

    In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions.

  4. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

    In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

  5. Mixed Factual 14 February 2021
    “Their original pitch – and I don’t know if it was true or not – was that they were interested in how I warned about the coronavirus pandemic very early and urged people to wear face masks before this…”

    The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.