In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

True if a dated record shows Scott Alexander publicly suggested, in February 2022, that Manifold Markets add a loan feature (or loans to traders) to encourage betting or investment in long-term markets. Examples of such a record: an ACX/SSC post, a Manifold post or comment, a tweet, or Manifold's own acknowledgement. Mostly true if he made the suggestion but it is dated a little outside February 2022 (late January or early March), or if it was framed slightly differently but was still about loans to boost long-term markets. Mixed if he suggested something related to boosting long-term markets but it was not a loan feature, or if it was a loan suggestion with no link to long-term markets. Mostly false if the record shows the suggestion came from someone else and he only endorsed it, or if it was made well outside February 2022. False if the evidence shows he made no such suggestion, for example if Manifold's records credit the loan idea entirely to others and he never raised it.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Play Money And Reputation Systems Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 21 February 2022 Own record

   “What to do? In the Manifold Discord, I recommended offering a per market interest-free loan of M$10, usable for a bet in that market only.”

2. E2 Above the Fold: Seeded! Manifold Markets (news.manifold.markets) · 19 April 2022

   “The idea for fixed $20 loans was suggested to us by Scott Alexander as a way to improve long-term markets.”

3. E3 Above the Fold: Bountiful Manifold Manifold Markets (news.manifold.markets) · 23 March 2022

   “For developing and publicizing the idea of providing interest-free loans on each market, helping make long-term markets more accurate.”

4. E4 #5: Loans loans loans | Notion Manifold Markets (Above the Fold newsletter, hosted on Notion)

   “Why did we implement loans? Scott thought it was a good idea A few reasons:”

E1 is Scott Alexander's ACX post dated 2022-02-21. In it he says he recommended in the Manifold Discord that Manifold offer a per-market, interest-free loan of M$10, and the post itself is a public suggestion made in February 2022. Manifold's newsletter (E2) independently credits him with suggesting fixed $20 loans as a way to improve long-term markets, which ties the suggestion to long-term markets; E3 separately describes recognition for developing and publicizing per-market interest-free loans for long-term markets, though its quoted line does not name him. E4 also says Manifold implemented loans because Scott thought it was a good idea.