Silver said the plan was for Silver Bulletin to have one paid post and one free post a week, in addition to SBSQ subscriber-questions posts.

The test covers the weeks from 17 November 2024 to 31 January 2025. It asks whether Silver Bulletin usually published at least one paid post and at least one free post each week, plus SBSQ subscriber-questions posts on a recurring basis. True: in most weeks (at least about 75%) there was at least one paid and one free post, and SBSQ posts kept appearing. Mostly true: the pattern held in most weeks, but holiday weeks were skipped or SBSQ appeared less often than implied. Mixed: the pattern held in roughly half the weeks. Mostly false: the pattern held only occasionally, for example free posts nearly every week but paid posts rare, or the reverse. False: the paid/free weekly structure was not followed at all, or was announced as dropped.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 SBSQ #17: How should you prepare for an AI future? Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) · 31 January 2025 Own record

   “Welcome to edition #17 of Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions.”

2. E2 SBSQ #16: Nate’s Incomplete Guide to Vegas Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) · 26 December 2024 Own record

   “I’m traveling to Seoul and Tokyo for the next two weeks, and I’m not quite sure how much I’ll be posting.”

3. E3 SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) · 26 November 2024 Own record

   “Ideally, then, we’ll get back to the regular schedule in which SBSQs run toward the end of the month.”

4. E4 Always. Be. Blogging. Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) · 22 November 2024 Own record

   “unless you don’t care about the money at all, I suggest that the ratio of paid-to-free posts be somewhere in the vicinity of 50:50”

5. E5 Always. Be. Blogging. Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 22 November 2024 Own record

   “And you’ll certainly want to publish at least one item a week. Let’s face it: on some level, successful newsletters depend on readers forming habitual relationships.”

6. E6 Always. Be. Blogging. Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 22 November 2024 Own record

   “if you have both paid and free posts — and by the way, unless you don’t care about the money at all, I suggest that the ratio of paid-to-free posts be somewhere in the vicinity of 50:50 — writing enough so that your free subscribers get something worthwhile from you every week is valuable.”

7. E7 Always. Be. Blogging. Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 22 November 2024 Own record

   “While I’m trying to avoid being overly proscriptive, I strongly suggest there is an inflection point for a successful Substacker at publishing at least two items per week.”

SBSQ subscriber-question posts appeared on 2024-11-26, 2024-12-26 and 2025-01-31 (E3, E2, E1), so SBSQ posts kept appearing about once a month. No item records how many paid and free posts Silver Bulletin published each week between 17 November 2024 and 31 January 2025. E2 also says posting over the holidays was uncertain. E4–E7 are general advice on how often newsletters should post, not a record of what Silver Bulletin published. Without week-by-week evidence, the evidence cannot settle the paid/free part of the claim, which is the core of it.