ClaimsRodney Brooks

“If Waymo can not succeed at this in the next two years I think the idea of large scale use of watered down autonomy will be dead for at least a decade or two.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2025 Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Prediction Economics and markets

Brooks thinks that if Waymo cannot make its taxi service succeed within the next two years, the idea of large-scale use of limited ('watered down') autonomy will be dead for at least a decade or two.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2027 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Brooks thinks that if Waymo cannot make its taxi service succeed within the next two years, the idea of large-scale use of limited ('watered down') autonomy will be dead for at least a decade or two.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_c01b325460f8, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c01b325460f8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
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    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “If electric sales continue to grow at 68% per year then 2025 would hit 28% of new cars in the US being electric.”

    If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.